The Backyard Brawl is back in full swing, with the home team taking each of the last two matchups. With a very tight point spread, this one projects to be a good one. Let’s breakdown this game below.
Check out my full CFB Week 3 best bets article here!
West Virginia ML (-115) at Pittsburgh
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
I backed WVU in Week 1 as a home underdog to Penn State, and that proved too tall a task for the Mountaineers. But PSU is likely a Playoff team this season, so I’m not backing down on my stance that the Mountaineers can be a very good team this season. Fresh off a nine-win season, WVU likely got better heading into 2024, but a brutal schedule has them priced pretty low in futures markets. But make no mistake about it, West Virginia is the better team here, and I think the spot sets up well for it not to drop this one as a short road favorite.
Following a Week 1 loss at Penn State in 2023, the Mountaineers did play well on the road, winning three of their final five away from home, two of them priced as a dog. Meanwhile, Pitt wasn’t very good last season, but didn’t do well off a winning week — 0-3 following victories in 2023. This is a really tough spot for the Panthers, who were dealt big back-to-back rivalry games on the schedule. Pitt lost at home as a touchdown favorite to Cincinnati early last season, and last week went on the road and got revenge in the River City Rivalry. Not only did the Panthers upset the Bearcats as short underdogs, they did so by erasing a 21-point deficit in a game they held the ball for nearly 13 minutes less than Cincy.
It was a miracle comeback on the road for the Panthers, who now need to hit the reset button and prepare for a really good West Virginia team that won this game last year, by a score of 17-6 in Morgantown. Sure, going on the road will be difficult, but if WVU can control the ball the way Cincy did last week against these Panthers, I don’t like Pitt’s chances at another miracle.
The Mountaineers have Phil Steele’s No. 2 ranked offense in the Big 12, and it hinges on running the football. WVU has elite offensive line play, and I expect them to control this game in the trenches. WVU has a veteran, dual threat QB in Garrett Greene, and a two-headed monster in the backfield at RB — all three of which rushed for over 800 yards in 2023.
I expect the better team to control the ball in this one, not allowing the Panthers to be able to creep back in it after last week’s magic.
PLAY: West Virginia ML (-125) or better
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
