Round 2 action is underway in New York! In this article, I’ll break down my US Open best bets for Thursday, August 29, featuring some of the biggest names on tour.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Over 6.5 Total Breaks (+100)
Over the three years I’ve been writing tennis picks for Grand Slams, this genuinely may be the first time I’ve highlighted a break prop. That said, the fact that you can take the over at plus-money made this too enticing to pass up.
Carlos Alcaraz — who I predicted to win this tournament — bounced back from a disappointing Cincinnati exit on Tuesday, kicking off his campaign to win a third straight Grand Slam with a solid win over Li Tu. The Spaniard faltered in the second set, but won the other three quite convincingly to advance. Now, he’ll take on the 28-year-old van de Zandschulp in Round 2. Carlitos has cruised against Botic in each of their career meetings, including a straight set victory at the 2021 Australian Open.
Alcaraz is a machine against opposing servers, boasting a ridiculous 31.6% break rate in 2024. However, there’s a reason I’m opting for the total breaks prop instead of Alcaraz’s individual over. As I stated earlier, I love the plus-money value compared to -110 for Alcaraz’s over 5.5 line. That said, despite being the best player in the world, Alcaraz gets sloppy at times with his service games.
The 21-year-old has a tendency to take big risks with the intention of ending rallies early, especially when he’s facing a far inferior opponent. Most of the time it works out, but if he starts missing shots games can slip away from him. In eight of Alcaraz’s last nine Grand Slam matches, he and his opponent have combined for at least seven breaks. I expect that to be the case again on Thursday, even if Carlos advances with ease.
While you’re reading my US Open best bets, check out my full tournament preview with predictions!
Sebastian Korda -5.5 Games vs. Tomas Machac (-105)
Seb Korda is having one heck of an August.
The No. 16 player in the world, it feels like Korda flies under the radar a bit compared to his fellow highly-ranked Americans, but the 24-year-old is capable of competing with the best players on tour. Over the last few weeks, he’s shown it.
Since the beginning of August, Korda has defeated Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, and most notably Alexander Zverev on hard court. That positive momentum carried over into his first-round match against Corentin Moutet, as he cruised to a 7-6, 6-1, 6-0 victory. On the other side of this matchup, Machac has had an up-and-down month. The 23-year-old is coming off a strong win over Fabio Fognini, but he lost his prior opening round matches in Cincinnati and Montreal. Machac is just 13-8 on hard court this year despite holding a top-40 ATP ranking.
These two have faced off just once in 2020, with Korda winning in straight sets. It’s hard to bet against the American’s recent run of form, so I expect him to cover this spread comfortably on Thursday.
Those are my US Open best bets for Day 4 in New York! Stay tuned for more picks later this week.
