Opening Day is just around the corner, and that can only mean one thing: Welcome to fantasy baseball draft season, everybody. All winter long, you’ve prepared for this moment; you’ve crunched the numbers, you’ve done the mocks, you’ve pored over the rankings. And now the moment of truth has finally arrived — so whatever you do, make sure you don’t screw it up as soon as you get on the clock.
There’s no quicker way to short-circuit dreams of fantasy glory than misfiring on your first-round pick. It provides the foundation for everything that comes after it, and if you come up empty, you’re digging yourself a hole you might never come out of. But don’t worry, we’re here to help: Below, we’ve laid out a pick-by-pick guide to the first round, giving you both recommendations at each spot and also who you might want to pair that player with come your next pick.
2024 fantasy baseball: Who to target with your first-round pick
1.1 target: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Yes, the knee scare is a factor here, but not nearly big enough of one to scare you off taking baseball’s first-ever 40/70 player with the first overall pick. Even if you shave a percentage from Acuna’s projections for 2024, he was lapping the field so resoundingly that he still comes out ahead.
Perfect pairing: Literally any non-outfielder
1.2 target: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
To me, Rodriguez is the clear-cut No. 2 choice in standard drafts — he doesn’t have quite the steals upside of Bobby Witt Jr. or Corbin Carroll, but he’s hardly a slouch, and he has a significant power advantage over those two. He also combines a 40/40 ceiling with a more stable floor than the younger guys who simply haven’t produced at this level for very long.
Perfect pairing: Literally any non-outfielder
1.3 target: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
I do have some concern about Witt Jr.’s 2023 breakout, a season largely fueled by two otherworldly months. But the tools have never been in doubt — he was a consensus top-five prospect for a reason — and he should continue to get better in his age-24 season. A 30/49 campaign is just too loud to ignore.
Perfect pairing: A big corner bat, like Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley or Pete Alonso
1.4 target: Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
I’m pushing Tucker up above more common choices like Carroll or Mookie Betts. I’ll get to the latter in a moment, but I have some concerns over how he ended last year, his history of shoulder problems and his relative lack of power for a top-five pick. Betts, meanwhile, doesn’t run nearly as much at this point in his career. There’s something to be said for safety, and Tucker feels like basically a lock for 30/30 with a good average and counting stats — and I still feel like there’s an MVP season in here somewhere.
Perfect pairing: A corner or middle infielder — Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Austin Riley, etc.
1.5 target: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll’s bat got exposed ever so slightly down the stretch, especially in the postseason, and his struggles against lefties and the specter of that balky shoulder have me hesitating ever so slightly. Still, it’s hard to see him not getting to at least 20 homers, and he’s a mainstay at the top of Arizona’s lineup who can swipe 40-50 bags in his sleep.
Perfect pairing: An infielder who will shore up your power without short-circuiting your average — Riley, Devers, Alonso, Harper, etc.
1.6 target: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
I made the case for being aggressive with Tatis Jr. here, but to briefly restate: There are an awful lot of parallels between Tatis Jr. and where Acuna was entering last season, a generational talent coming off a couple of years in the wilderness due to injury (and, in Tatis Jr.’s case, suspension). Basically every player who’s ever been this good, this young, has become a Hall of Famer, and I’m buying this profile — and his stratospheric upside.
Perfect pairing: Again, lots of options to follow a five-category stud, but Tatis Jr. and, say, Lindor or Semien might ding your average a bit. An infielder who will help your batting average, like Jose Ramirez or Harper, would be ideal.
1.7 target: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie doesn’t run quite as much anymore, but he’ll give you double-digits in steals, and he’s just so solid everywhere else — especially given how loaded L.A.’s lineup figures to be this year. Add in his positional versatility, and you have arguably the safest pick in the first round, even if you’ll have to navigate the relative lack of speed elsewhere.
Perfect pairing: You can go really any direction you like here, but if you follow Mookie with a power-heavy corner bat, be prepared to make up that speed deficit in the middle rounds. Lindor or Marcus Semien make a lot of sense.
1.8 target: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Is it possible that Judge is being undersold a bit? He’s the game’s premiere power hitter, and if he stays healthy, he’s going to hit 50-plus homers, with massive run production numbers and potentially double-digit steals, too. I get it if the health risk scares you off, but he’s an easy first-rounder and one of the few guys who could make a run at Acuna.
Perfect pairing: You might think that you need to follow this up with a steals source like, say, Ramirez or Lindor, but given how many plausible sources of 15-20 steals there are in this draft, I really wouldn’t mind Judge and, say, Olson or Alonso — just be sure it’s an infielder, and if you do go the big bopper route, be mindful of steals as the draft progresses. (And draft someone like Jarren Duran in the middle rounds and/or Sal Frelick late.)
1.9 target: Juan Soto, New York Yankees
I’m betting on a career season from Soto, who people are sleeping on to an alarming extent considering his resume. Soto hasn’t hit better than .275 since 2021, but he continues to put up elite quality of contact metrics with tremendous plate discipline, so a .300 average is on the table. His swing isn’t optimized for the short porch, but it should at least be enough to give him a 30-homer floor. He’s an OBP machine hitting in front of Judge, so leading the league in runs is on the table. Oh, and it’s a contract year. Don’t overthink this, even if it means planning around some steals sources in the middle rounds.
Perfect pairing: Avoid stacking another outfielder here, and avoid another guy with a low ceiling on steals and power — like, say, Freeman. Other than that, the floor is yours, either taking someone like Ramirez and Lindor or going with Riley or Alonso and making up the steals deficit later.
1.10 target: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Freeman’s 34, but that’s about the only knock on him at this point. Even if he takes a slight step back — especially in steals, where he set a new career high by 10 with 23 last season — he’s still an easy fantasy stud in that lineup. This is more a floor play than a ceiling play, but that’s nothing to sneeze at, nor is a potential 30/20 season with an elite batting average.
Perfect pairing: You obviously aren’t doubling up on first basemen, and if you take someone like Devers or Riley, you’re making up steals later. If Ramirez falls, he’d be a great fit here, as would someone like Lindor.
1.11 target: Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
Turner had among the weirdest seasons you’ll ever see in 2023, but when the dust settled, he wound up with a very Trea Turner-like 26 homers and 30 steals. Granted, the batting average was down from its usual .290-.300, but he slashed .292/.348/.554 in the second half while looking like his usual self. The hype is largely gone, but Turner is still a five-category stalwart in the middle of a good lineup who feels like a good bet to best his 2023 numbers.
Perfect pairing: You want to focus on power moving forward, either from a corner spot (Riley, Devers, Alonso, Olson, Harper) or the outfield (Yordan Alvarez).
1.12 target: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
People continue to doubt Ramirez, and I’m just not quite sure why. Yes, it’s a funky profile — few elite hitters make worse contact — but how many years does he need to do this before people stop questioning him? 25/25 feels like a cinch, and there’s some room for positive regression here if this Guardians lineup can be even a little bit better than last year’s version.
Perfect pairing: Alvarez, Harper, Lindor, Olson, the world is your oyster with a foundation this balanced.
