Cody Bellinger finally thawed a frigid Hot Stove over the weekend, agreeing to a three-year, $80 million deal — with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons — to return to the Chicago Cubs. A reunion between the Cubs and Bellinger after his bounce-back 2023 season was hardly a surprise. What was a bit of a surprise, however, were the terms — specifically, the fact that Bellinger wasn’t able to get anywhere near the sort of long-term deal he and agent Scott Boras clearly expected at the start of the offseason.
Granted, there were some reasons to be skeptical; Bellinger posted a dismal 66 OPS+ combined between 2021 and 2022, and his high BABIP and iffy contact metrics left some wondering whether his 2023 production was a fluke. Still: This is a former NL MVP who just slashed .307/.356/.525 (133 OPS+) with 26 homers and 20 steals, won’t turn 29 until July and still plays good defense in center field. The fact that he eventually accepted a short-term deal with a substantially lower total value shows you just how difficult the market has become for upper-tier free agents who aren’t slam-dunk, generational stars — and explains why three other such players, all Boras clients, still remain on the market just a month away from Opening Day.
Just what does Bellinger’s decision mean for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman? What might it suggest about Boras’ strategy moving forward, both this spring and in the offseasons to come? Let’s break it down.
1. Did Scott Boras blink?
Boras had become something of a boogeyman for front offices around the league, a man capable of ginning up a market where seemingly none existed. No matter how many red flags there might be around one of his players, Boras would simply call up an owner, get him in a room and coax out a nine-figure deal.
Until this year, that is. Whether it’s the changing economic landscape of the sport, teams reorienting towards locking up their young talent or simply owners and executives wising up, Boras hasn’t been able to work that same magic so far this winter. It’s almost certain that some team would have been willing to offer Bellinger more years and more guaranteed money than what he accepted from Chicago. But the fact that Bellinger felt like he had to go prove it with another excellent year in order to see the truly big bucks feels like a fairly strong indicator as to the influence that Boras does or does not hold around the league.
2. Door open for shorter deals?
Again, you don’t want to read too much into a single data point. Bellinger presented a unique case; it’s not often you see a player experience such stratospheric highs and brutal lows all before their 30th birthday. And yet: This contract is well below what just about everyone predicted for the slugger at the start of the offseason, and it flies in the face of just about everything we thought we knew about Boras and how he advises his clients.
Boras has always prized long-term contracts, ensuring as many years of guaranteed salary for his stars as possible. He’s not totally opposed to shorter deals, but generally he wants to make the most out of a player’s foray into free agency. The fact that Bellinger zagged, then, raises an interesting question: Is this simply a player getting impatient and opting to return to a place he’s clearly comfortable, or is it a sign of Boras’ newfound openness to maximizing annual value and returning to the market after just a couple of years?
The latter strategy would make a certain amount sense on paper, particularly for guys like Snell and Chapman — players with both track records of big-league success and also real flaws in their games that might make teams antsy about committing to, say, six or seven years. (For Snell, his iffy command; for Chapman, his hit tool.) Clearly, executives around the league are sufficiently worried about how the duo projects into the future to walk away from the negotiating table entirely. There’s always the possibility that an erstwhile contender gets antsy, or that an injury creates new urgency. But the closer we get to Opening Day, the more it seems like Bellinger’s path might be the best one for Snell and Chapman as well: a not-insignificant guarantee that also allows for the ability to hit the market again quickly if they put up another elite season.
3. Cubs probably done
Given their question mark at third base, Chicago had been identified as a potential Chapman suitor, but it’s probably fair to put a bow on that speculation for now. Chicago’s payroll is now estimated to sit around $193 million, and while that’s still considerably under the first luxury tax threshold — nearly $30 million, probably enough to fit, say, Chapman or Montgomery — it’s also the second-highest figure in franchise history. It feels unlikely that the Cubs have another big swing in them, unless the price on Chapman or one of the pitchers really falls into their laps. Plus, with Christopher Morel already in house and top prospect Matt Shaw ready to break into the Majors at some point this season, they probably feel as though they’re better off filling the hot corner internally.
4. Deadline for regular season readiness looms
Something to keep in mind, especially as it pertains to Snell and Montgomery, is that both will require sufficient time to ramp up into regular-season form. There’s a reason why pitchers report to spring training early; starters are tightly regimented, slowly stretching their arms an extra 10 or 15 pitches per session at a time until they’re finally up near 90 or 100. That process tends to take three to four weeks, and while Snell and Montgomery can start it on their own, there’s no substitute for live reps — not to mention whatever tweaking the teams that sign them might want to do.
Opening Day for most of the league is slated for March 28, or about a month away. (The Dodgers and Padres will begin the regular season on March 20 with a two-game set in Seoul, South Korea.) That means time is of the essence: If this pushes into March, we’re getting to the point where they might not be ready to roll come Opening Day (or will be on a limited pitch count early). Of course, that might not be a deal-breaker …
5. … but that doesn’t mean a deal must happen
Boras is considered the best agent in the sport’s history for a reason. He’s willing to break out every possible trick in his bag to get his clients what he feels they deserve — up to and including holding clients out into the regular season if the offers they’ve received aren’t good enough to merit signing somewhere. It’s certainly not the norm, but Boras has done it before, notably with Dallas Keuchel (June 2019), Stephen Drew (May 2014) and Kendrys Morales (June 2014).
It’s too early to know if any or all of the remaining Boras Four will be available on or beyond March 28. But discounting that possibility is doubting Boras’ boldness, and more often than not that equals a losing bet — even if he seems a bit more wounded than it years past.
