UCLA vs. USC picks, best bets for Week 12 matchup

The UCLA Bruins take on the USC Trojans in a crosstown Pac-12 matchup in Week 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at the Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, November 18.

UCLA (6-4, 3-4 Pac-12) fell to Arizona State in their latest game, marking two losses in a row. In the 17-7 loss, the Bruins’ offense fell flat without quarterback Dante Moore, who has missed several weeks with a head injury. If Moore or Ethan Garbers can return for this matchup, things will be looking up for the Bruins. The UCLA defense has looked better than the offense, but will have their work cut out for them against Caleb Williams and company. Looming large over this game for UCLA are reports that head coach Chip Kelly will be fired following the contest, so we’ll see how the Bruins players perform with uncertainty swirling around the program.

USC (7-4, 5-3 Pac-12) started their season strong, but have lost four of their last five games, and the single win in there was over Cal by just one point. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was recently let go, and the Trojans fared decently well against Oregon in their latest game but ultimately lost. In the 36-27 loss, Caleb Williams passed for 291 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for a second score. The ground game was responsible for most of the TDs, but failed to gain much yardage otherwise.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

UCLA: 23 overall, 46 offense, 15 defense
USC: 24 overall, 2 offense, 106 defense

Injury update

UCLA

QB Dante Moore - Questionable (head)
QB Collin Schlee - Questionable (undisclosed)
LB Ale Kaho - Out indefinitely (leg)

USC

CB Jacobe Covington - Out indefinitely (undisclosed)
WR Makai Lemon - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Michael Jackson III - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Raleek Brown - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

UCLA: 4-6 ATS
USC: 3-8 ATS

Total in 2023

UCLA: Over 2-8
USC: Over 9-2

Team Pace (through Week 10)

UCLA: 22.9 seconds per play
USC: 24.9 seconds per play

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: USC -4.5
Total: 62.5
Moneyline: USC -198, UCLA +164

Weather

67 degrees, cloudy with a few showers, 6 MPH winds SSE

Our Best Bet for UCLA vs. USC

USC -4.5

UCLA has not looked particularly good in their last few games despite a strong start to the season, and this may finally be USC’s chance to get things back on track. While their defense was far from perfect against Oregon, they held the Ducks to 36 points, which is an improvement for the Trojans. Caleb Williams is still Caleb Williams, and I think USC uses this rivalry game to make a statement.