We’ve officially hit Labor Day, which means we’re about to enter the sprint to the regular-season finish. With so much riding on every game, everything players do is magnified; this is the time where playoff spots — and individual awards — are won and lost. Gerrit Cole has been the one thing holding this Yankees team together, while Luis Castillo and the Mariners continue to rocket up the standings — and the Twins have several pitchers within striking distance if they stay hot.
September is here, and there’s precious little time left to build an awards argument. So, just like we did back in late August, let’s take a look at how the past few weeks and have impacted the AL Cy Young race over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated AL Cy Young odds as of Monday, August 21
Gerrit Cole -245 Luis Castillo +340 Kevin Gausman +1200
Sonny Gray +1500 George Kirby +4000 Framber Valdez +4000
Pablo Lopez +6000 Nathan Eovaldi +10000 Logan Gilbert +20000
Eduardo Rodriguez +20000 Jose Berrios +20000
Cole bounced right back from his clunker against the Red Sox with two more quality starts to close the month of August — and run his tally to an MLB-leading 20. The Yankees righty has been the steadiest hand in otherwise topsy-turvy race, just churning out six or seven quality innings every fifth day despite all the dysfunction swirling in New York. That consistency has him on the precipice of his first career Cy Young Award, seemingly his as long as he doesn’t totally implode down the stretch. (Of course, it helps that not too many other contenders have put pressure on him: Gausman has put up a 5.75 ERA over his last four starts, Valdez has alternated between brilliance and crooked numbers, Eovaldi remains out with a forearm injury and Kirby has struggled of late despite a very easy schedule.)
Cole holds the lead in most major statistical categories, but for as good as he’s been, he hasn’t been overwhelming — this isn’t Astros Cole we’re talking about here — and there’s still plenty of time for someone to get hot and steal this award if Cole slips up.
AL Cy Young race: Takeaways and best bets
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners (+340)
Castillo needs to be right at the top of that list, and we hope you bought in when we recommended the Mariners righty at +700 a couple weeks ago. He’s still worth the plunge here, as hecould very easily take home the hardware if recent trends continue through the end of September. The Mariners have overtaken the Rangers and Astros for the AL West lead and figure to be playing competitive, meaningful baseball for that entire period, something that can’t be said for the Yankees — who may even decide to ease up on Cole’s workload unless they’re really committed to helping him check this box on his career resume.
Castillo has Cole beat in WHIP and K/9, has a real chance to catch him in ERA (2.95 vs. 3.19) and is just five innings behind the Yankees ace. Cole’s underlying metrics haven’t been nearly as good as his top-line performance this season, and if throws up another underwhelming start or two over the next few weeks while Castillo keeps his ERA down, these odds could flip in a hurry.
Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins (+1500)
Of course, if you’re looking for a real long shot who could make a plausible argument for winning, look no further than Gray. The Twins righty was sensational in August, with a 2.04 ERA and 41 Ks over 39.2 innings across six starts during the month. Of course, the team only won three of those six games, which shows just how much of a liability Minnesota’s offense has been — an dhow much they’ll need Gray (and the rest of that star-studded rotation) to step up if they’re going to close out the AL Central. Gray’s WHIP lags a bit behind Cole’s, but he leads the AL in ERA and is second only to Cole in pitcher WAR — it’s very easy to see a statistical case to make for him if he finishes strong and Cole scuffles a bit.
