With the dust fully settled from the 2023 trade deadline, we’re getting a sense of the new landscape around the league — and how each team’s August acquisitions have hit the ground running (or not) — as the we enter the sprint to the regular-season finish. Unsurprisingly, there’s been a whole lot of change, and unsurprisingly, the futures market for the AL Cy Young Award has responded accordingly. Gerrit Cole went through one of his worst starts of the year at the worst possible time for the miserable Yankees, while Luis Castillo and the Mariners might never lose again. Speaking of miserable: How many innings does Shohei Ohtani have left on the mound for the Angels? Can any member of the Twins’ dynamite rotation separate themselves?
September is looming, and there’s precious little time left to build an awards argument. So, just like we did right after the trade deadline, let’s take a look at how the past few weeks and have impacted the AL Cy Young race over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated AL Cy Young odds as of Monday, August 21
Gerrit Cole -170 Kevin Gausman +350 Luis Castillo +700
George Kirby +1800 Shohei Ohtani +2000 Framber Valdez +2800
Pablo Lopez +4500 Nathan Eovaldi +5000 Felix Bautista +10000
Sonny Gray +10000 Eduardo Rodriguez +15000 Lucas Giolito +20000
Cole fell flat against the Red Sox over the weekend, but that hardly put a dent in his status as Cy Young favorite — largely because the rest of the field hasn’t done enough to put pressure on him. Gausman has thrown up clunkers in two of three starts this month; Valdez is also struggling mightily; Ohtani’s health issues throw his status on the mound into question, while Eovaldi remains on the IL.
Cole’s most recent outing aside, the Yankees righty has been the steadiest contender in an otherwise topsy-turvy season, tying with Logan Webb for the league lead in quality starts while putting up solid-enough strikeout numbers (although they’re a ways off from his Astros days). He holds the lead in most major statistical categories, but he hasn’t been overwhelming of late, and there’s still plenty of time for someone to get hot and steal this award if Cole slips up.
AL Cy Young race: Takeaways and best bets
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners (+700)
Castillo needs to be right at the top of that list, and he represents good value at +700 as someone who could very easily take home the hardware if recent trends continue through the end of September. The Mariners are now just four back of the Rangers for the AL West lead and figure to be playing competitive, meaningful baseball for that entire period, something that can’t be said for the Yankees — who may even decide to ease up on Cole’s workload if they keep sinking down the AL standings like a stone.
The righty has Cole beat in WHIP and K/9, has a real chance to catch him in ERA (3.03 vs. 3.23) and is just 10 innings behind the Yankees ace. Cole’s underlying metrics haven’t been nearly as good as his top-line performance this season, and if throws up another underwhelming start or two over the next few weeks while Castillo keeps his ERA down, these odds could flip in a hurry.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins (+4500)
Of course, if you’re looking for a real long shot who could make a plausible argument for winning, look no further than Lopez. The Twins righty has been unconscious in August, with just one earned run allowed and 27 strikeouts over 25 innings pitched this month — with the team winning all four of his outings. Minnesota isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, but like it or not, they’ll be a playoff team, and will therefore remain on the radar. Lopez’s 11.0 K/9 is substantially better than Cole’s and again he’s just one start behind him in terms of innings pitched. The only thing really separating them as candidates is ERA — Lopez’s 3.50 mark is still a bit inflated from a rough stretch earlier this summer — but if he keeps throwing like this, it’s not out of the question that he could steal the award.
