In Week 4 of the NFL season, we have our first London game. That means early morning football Stateside, so settle in with breakfast and perhaps a cup of tea as we all wake up together for some football. The Washington Commanders are coming off a stunning upset against the reigning champs but are still underdogs for this matchup, which pits them against an Indianapolis Colts squad that got into the win column for the first time last week as well.
Kickoff in London, England is set for 9:30 a.m. ET. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Colts vs. Commanders in NFL Week 4.
Colts vs. Commanders prediction, preview
Both of these teams head across the pond with a 1-2 record coming off their first wins of the season last week. The narrative is fairly similar for each, too – a respectable offense with upside let down by one of the NFL’s worst defenses.
The Colts likely feel great about taking down the division-rival Texans, and losing to the Chiefs in a close Week 2 contest was hardly a major letdown after suffering blowout to the Ravens in the opener. The offense has scored 72 points, good for 17th in the league, while the team ranks 21st in EPA/play. The good news is that the run game is elite as expected at second in EPA/rush on the back of Jonathan Taylor, who has 258 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The limitation of the unit is that Daniel Jones hasn’t been too impressive coming off the rehab from a torn Achilles, totaling 611 yards with three touchdowns to three interceptions – he’s also 31st in EPA/dropback. Keenan Allen has been ruled out this week, meaning the passing attack will flow almost exclusively through Josh Downs (14 REC, 186 YDS) and Tyler Warren (18 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD). Defensively, the Colts have really struggled with 91 points allowed, 28th in the league. However, consider the context of the schedule they’ve faced for a moment and ranking 31st in EPA/play allowed is marginally more acceptable. It’s still not a great look, though, especially with just seven sacks, two forced fumbles and no interceptions.
The Commanders fell to two NFC East foes over the first two games with losses to the Eagles and Cowboys. However, they stunned the Seahawks in Week 3 with a 33-31 win, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota at the helm. He’ll remain under center for at least this week, and at the very least, this offense hasn’t looked too bad with him. Overall, Washington falls 15th in scoring with 75 points and 14th in EPA/play. There is a bit of worry since Terry McLaurin is likely to miss Sunday’s contest with a hamstring issue, elevating Stefon Diggs (13 REC, 135 YDS, 3 TD) and rookie Antonio Williams (9 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD) in the pecking order. The big issue is the run game, which is yet to truly get going. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has only 142 yards and one touchdown, and backup Rachaad White (shoulder) has been ruled out. Unless the points come this week, winning will prove difficult. Washington’s defense ranks 30th with 92 points allowed and sits 26th in EPA/play allowed. If there’s any avenue for success, it’s that the front seven has bottled the run with the fourth-best defensive EPA/rush, but the unit also comes in at 29th in EPA/dropback allowed. While the Commanders have a pair of interceptions and two forced fumbles, they also have just five sacks.
Colts vs. Commanders pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Colts as a -4.5 favorite with -205 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Commanders are a +170 underdog to win outright with the game total set at 46.5 combined points.
One way or another, there’s almost always some weirdness when it comes to international games. The under usually holds a bit of an edge with the teams’ usual routines being interrupted by the travel circumstances, and while these defenses are both pretty paltry at the moment, there’s enough here to make me feel pretty confident in the decision to fade scoring.
For starters, the Washington defense has allowed just 82 rushing yards per game, and as mentioned earlier, comes in at fourth in defensive EPA/rush. There’s no stopping Jonathan Taylor entirely, but teams can occasionally slow him down. If the Commanders can do that, it’ll force Daniel Jones to make plays. He’s yet to really look like the version of himself we saw pre-injury last year, so with a depleted pass-catching group and the addition of the international trip a factor, this doesn’t feel like the week in which he totally returns to form. On the opposite side, Indianapolis runs man coverage at the NFL’s fifth-highest rate. Marcus Mariota ranks 36th among 38 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/dropback against man looks since the beginning of last season. That matchup may cause trouble, particularly if Terry McLaurin doesn’t play as expected. If the Commanders’ run game performs poorly again, good luck to them.
We could see a 24-21 finish with multiple touchdowns on each side and still narrowly come in under the total in this one. I’m just not willing to bank on an excessive amount of points here given the trip to London and the inconsistencies in the Washington offense. The Colts should escape with a win.
