Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction, pick for NFL Week 4 on Sunday 10/4/26

The NFL season has already progressed into Week 4 with each Sunday seemingly flying by. This week, the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers host their third straight home game as they take on a struggling Green Bay Packers team. Both sides are performing at far below their typical standards, but someone’s bound to bounce back today. Which team will capture a much-needed win in this one?

Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Tampa Bay. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Packers vs. Buccaneers in NFL Week 4.

Packers vs. Buccaneers prediction, preview

Very little has gone according to plan for either of these franchises this year.

The Packers are severely underperforming at 1-2 after losses to the Vikings and Falcons, with the lone win an overtime victory over the Jets back in Week 2. Their problems are numerous, to say the least. They’re down multiple offensive linemen and have virtually no run game, ranking 32nd in EPA/rush with 48.7 YPG on the ground. Jordan Love is taking a beating under center. While he has 844 yards and six touchdowns to two interceptions, he’s under constant pressure and doesn’t have time to get comfortable, resulting in reduced efficiency with a 52.4% completion rate. At the very least, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are in the midst of a breakout – the former has racked up 17 catches for 284 yards and four touchdowns while the latter has 15 grabs for 253 yards and one score. Still, it’s not been enough to win football games, and certainly not with this defense. The Packers knew life would be rough while waiting for Micah Parsons to return from his Achilles tear. They probably didn’t think it would get this bad, giving up 30.3 PPG (29th) and ranking 22nd in defensive EPA/play. At the very least, they’ve limited explosive plays at the fourth-best rate. That’s hardly consolation, though.

The Buccaneers are still winless, having suffered losses to the Bengals, Browns and Vikings over the first three weeks, two of which came at home. There’s no worse offense than this one at the moment in terms of EPA/play, and while they’re 19th in scoring with 20.7 PPG, things probably won’t get any better. Baker Mayfield, who has struggled mightily thus far, is out with an injury and will be replaced by UDFA rookie Jalon Daniels. There’s upside in the quarterback’s profile, but he went undrafted for a reason and only truly put his game together during his final collegiate season at Kansas, where he was largely quite prone to turnovers despite showing flashes of excellence. Emeka Egbuka has just 141 receiving yards and one score on 13 receptions this year and the remainder of the receiving core hasn’t been stellar. If it’s any consolation, Bucky Irving has looked solid with 141 scrimmage yards and a touchdown out of the backfield, but he can’t carry this offense alone. Defensively, the Bucs are allowing 26.3 PPG despite ranking sixth in EPA/play allowed with top-12 marks against the run and pass. If the offense could get much going, perhaps things wouldn’t be as dire in Tampa Bay.

Packers vs. Buccaneers pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Packers as a -3 favorite on the road with -170 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Buccaneers are a +142 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 38.5 combined points.

Green Bay should win this game even despite the glaring issues with the roster. The reason for that? It’s simply Daniels’ presence under center for the Bucs. The rookie quarterback impressed in the preseason but is unproven at this level, and it’s quite a stretch to say he has an NFL-caliber arm. He cleaned up his turnover issues during his final season at Kansas with 22 touchdowns to seven picks, but he still threw 31 over his 49 collegiate games and tossed a Big 12-worst 12 of them during his 2024 campaign. The margin for error gets much smaller in the pros, even against a struggling defense.

If there’s one bet that I do feel rather sure about in this game, it’s over for Jordan Love to record over 33.5 pass attempts. Through three weeks, he’s dropped back the third-most times of any quarterback (excluding the two who played an extra game on Thursday Night Football this past week) and trails only Tyler Shough in pass attempts with 124. The Packers are having to air the ball out over and over to have a chance in games, and as the NFL’s worst rushing attack by far faces a standout defensive front in terms of talent, they’ll have to throw a ton in this matchup, too. Love averages 44 dropbacks and 41.3 pass attempts per game, so it shouldn’t be difficult to clear this bar on Sunday.

Best Bet: Jordan Love over 33.5 pass attempts (-113)