Baltimore’s running out of centers. Danny Pinter, Jovaughn Gwyn, and Ethan Pocic have all landed on IR, and rookie guard Vega Ioane now moves over to snap the ball to Lamar Jackson. I’m more uneasy about Derrick Henry’s afternoon than Jackson’s, particularly after Dallas made Henry labor through 26 carries for just 89 rushing yards. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Ravens vs. Titans prediction, preview
Henry finished two drives in the end zone, and I’d expect Baltimore to keep trusting him there. Tennessee arrive with John Franklin-Myers cleared to play and a front allowing only 1.54 adjusted YBC/ATT, ninth-lowest. Henry will have to push through early contact again, this time behind a rookie changing positions. Ronnie Stanley’s questionable toe leaves Baltimore worrying about left tackle as well.
Jackson has been throwing beautifully, his NFL-leading 9.8 YPA ample reason to distrust an under. Even against two-high looks, he has averaged a healthy 8.35 YPA over 33 dropbacks. Tennessee use those structures on 63.8% of snaps, seventh-most. I’m expecting Zay Flowers to play after his full Thursday practice and rest-related reduction Friday, although the questionable designation remains. Flowers caught five of six targets for 84 yards against Dallas despite playing through his hamstring injury.
Cam Ward still needs his first completion traveling at least 20 air yards. Against two-high coverage, he has scraped together just 4.38 YPA across 53 dropbacks, and Baltimore keep those safeties deep on 68.6% of plays, fourth-most. Taking the underneath throw, completing another, then another—I can see how laborious this gets for Ward, particularly after a sack or penalty puts Tennessee behind the chains.
Titans vs. Ravens pick, best bet
I’d keep returning to Tony Pollard, who took 81% of Tennessee’s carries against the Giants while Tyjae Spears nursed his ankle. Baltimore surrender 2.15 adjusted YBC/ATT, twelfth-most, so Pollard should get some room to accelerate. Tennessee have lost starting right guard Fernando Carmona and backup Jackson Slater to IR, though, so Pollard and Ward both need replacement blocking. Tennessee’s replacements will at least face a rush missing Trey Hendrickson.
I’m taking under 41.5 and projecting Baltimore to win 27–10. Jackson can throw the Ravens into the high 20s, Henry can finish drives, and Tennessee can still struggle to reach double figures. I expect Ward to spend too much of the afternoon completing passes underneath defenders who have the first-down marker in front of them.
Best bet: Under 41.5 (-105)
Projected score: Ravens 27, Titans 10
