The Indianapolis Colts lost Alec Pierce to injury, but they still came out of last week’s game with a win while a couple of their other wide receivers posted quality outings in fantasy football. Veteran Keenan Allen showed potential in that victory, putting him his best game yet with his new team.
Moving forward, is Keenan Allen a must-add on the waiver wire? And can he be an immediate fantasy starter in Week 4?
Is Keenan Allen a must-add waiver wire pickup for Week 4?
Keenan Allen hasn’t quite exploded in fantasy football, but he’s looking quite serviceable despite his age. At 34 years old, the longtime veteran signed with the Colts this offseason to bolster a receiver room that was largely thin beyond Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Largely a slot receiver over the last few years, it seemed clear that Allen would step in for short-yardage looks as a reliable chain-mover. Now, those expectations have been answered.
In Week 1, he caught all six of his targets for 32 yards – not a great yardage total, but a good indicator that he’d be involved in this offense. He hauled in just one pass for five yards in Week 2, but saw five targets on the day in that matchup. Then, Allen caught six-of-nine balls for 63 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 against a tough Texans defense, his best performance of the young season. It should be noted that Pierce landed on IR prior to that game, so the Indianapolis staff were able to create a game plan with knowledge that the field-stretcher would be out, rather than adapting on the fly as in the game that he was injured in.
Allen is averaging just 9.67 FPPG in PPR formats through three weeks, but he produced 11.7 and 15.0 points in two of those games. That’s usable production for fantasy lineups as a FLEX, though his upside is capped compared to in prior seasons. Do the numbers indicate that he can continue to do this, though?
This doesn’t seem to be a fluke. Allen saw an uptick in route share to 70.7% in Week 3, which was a good sign that he’ll be on the field in Pierce’s absence. As things stand, his 20 targets place him just inside the top-30 wideouts in total target volume and he’s 34th in target share at the position, too. He’s not a truly high-volume player, but getting the ball into his hands seems to be a priority – his 0.27 TPRR (targets per route run) sits 22nd among all receivers while a 26.0% first-read percentage comes in at 30th. Those are all encouraging metrics for a fantasy FLEX play.
What’s particularly interesting here is that Allen has actually taken just 32.9% of his routes from in the slot, with 64.4% coming from out wide. That’s a surprising development given the type of wideout he is along with his declining athleticism at his age, but he’s making it work as a PPR talent. His 7.69 yards per reception are 106th at the position, so he’s not creating yardage. However, he ranks 39th in FPRR (fantasy points per route run), which falls right around other wideouts like Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks, AD Mitchell and Josh Downs, who are all within 0.04 FPRR of Allen’s mark.
What that tells us is that while Pierce remains out, Allen should be a serviceable FLEX play in fantasy football. The Colts are clearly trying to put the ball in his hands, and as long as he sees steady target volume, the veteran will remain a steady floor play in PPR formats. His lack of ceiling hurts some, but certain lineup constructions should allow him to be a playable asset for the moment.
