NFL Week 1 is upon us, with games spanning from the new Wednesday night season opener through Monday Night Football. I’ll provide my bets for the week here in this article, along with analysis. The plays will be updated throughout the week as I add anything.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (Wednesday 8:20pm ET)
For the full analysis on why I’m backing Jadarian Price to go over his rushing prop on Wednesday night, check out my article on DraftKings Network.
NFL Pick: Jadarian Price OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
For the full analysis on why I’m backing Drake Maye to go over his passing prop on Wednesday night, check out my article on DraftKings Network.
NFL Pick: Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards (-113)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
The Lions have one of the most electric offenses in the NFL, particularly when they play at home. Detroit averaged 32.5 points when playing in-doors in Detroit in 2025, but the defense was giving up over 24 points per game on the season. The defense should progress in 2026, but the Saints should also make some offensive improvements.
Tyler Shough took over at quarterback late in the season, and the offense finished strong, averaging 24.8 points over the final five games. Meanwhile, New Orleans could use some work on the defensive side of the ball, after allowing 25.3 points per game on the road last season.
With the Lions favored by a touchdown at home, we could also see the Saints pushing for late points here if Detroit is up multiple scores late in the game. Tie it all together, and I expect that we see a lot of offense on Sunday in Detroit.
I gave out O48.5 over the summer on the DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast, and will grade the play on that number. However, with most shops now showing 50 on the total, DraftKings still has a 49.5 on the board, which I believe is worth a bet. Despite a 50/50 balanced ticket count on the total, 78% of the money has come in on the over at DK — you can track those updated betting splits throughout the week here.
NFL Pick: OVER 48.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
I’m a little late to the party here, but not passing up on this chance to fade the Falcons. While the -3 on Pittsburgh is disappearing, I’m comfortable laying north of a field goal against Tua Tagovailoa. While Tua did nothing in training camp or preseason to help himself win the starting QB job, Michael Penix Jr. simply is not healthy to begin the year. Tagovailoa won the job by default.
While Atlanta has the weapons to be a good offense, I don’t believe Tua can execute to make it matter — he had the weapons in Miami and certainly couldn’t make it count. I expect the Steelers to put an emphasis on containing Bijan Robinson, and count on Tagovailoa to make some mistakes.
I’m not particularly high on Pittsburgh this season, but do believe this is a cushy spot to open up at home. Expect the pass rush to make things uncomfortable for Tua, and Aaron Rodgers to be able to do enough on the other side of the ball. Ticket count is starting to pile up on the Steelers, with an even higher handle percentage.
NFL Pick: PIT -3.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
This could be one of the games of the weekend between a couple of AFC contenders. Both teams went 12-5 last season, but bowed out of the postseason earlier than they would’ve liked. The struggles the Texans had offensively last season have been well documented, and were highlighted in their disaster loss in the postseason at New England.
However, Houston added three starting offensive lineman, along with David Montgomery to the running game. Being able to effectively run the ball, and give CJ Stroud better protection, should help make this offense much more dangerous. There are no questions on the defensive side of the ball for the Texans. This is one of the elite defenses in the NFL, and actually added pieces to potentially improve. I bet the Texans to go over their win total this season, and you can get more analysis on that in my article for DraftKings Network.
The Bills have struggled with trips to Houston in the past. Josh Allen has lost his last two road games to the Texans, including last season when he threw two interceptions and only scored 19 points. Houston was without Stroud for the game, and got the win with Davis Mills at QB.
I expect Allen to struggle on the road against this defense yet again. On the flip side, Buffalo’s defense is nothing special. If the offensive upgrades that Houston made, along with a healthy Stroud, can pay dividends, the home team will be in great position to win.
We’re seeing about three quarters of the bets and money come in on the Bills, but no significant line movement on the number. Houston is setting up as a nice contrarian side in Week 1. As long as the Texans are still listed as the short underdog, they are also my favorite teaser leg for Week 1 to buy up to +7.5.
NFL Pick: HOU +1.5 (-115)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
Ideally, we’d pair Houston +7.5 on a teaser with Minnesota +7.5. But we’ve seen the favorite in this game switch over the offseason. The Packers opened up the short road favorite, and even with over 70% of the money on them to cover the spread, the Vikings are now favored.
The Vikings are one of my favorite win total plays of the season, and I’m expecting them to get off on the right foot with a win over a division rival. You can read the win total article for the bulk of the analysis, but getting to 9-8 last season was very impressive for Minnesota. The Vikings were rotating between J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer at QB, but still managed a winning record.
Enter Kyler Murray. If Murray can just be average, you’d expect Minnesota to take a step forward offensively. If the former No. 1 overall pick can unlock any of the success he had earlier in his career, the offense could take a big step forward. Playing on a prove-it contract, we can expect Murray to be locked in. The defense has been rock solid in recent seasons, and returns the majority of the key contributors.
Meanwhile, the Packers limped down the stretch last season. Including the postseason game against the Bears, Green Bay lost its final five games, really struggling to close out in the second halves. The Packers lost a handful of contributors off that roster, and will remain without Micah Parsons to begin 2026. Green Bay went just 3-7 ATS on the road last season.
I like the Vikings to get a third consecutive win at home over the Packers on Sunday as my favorite play of NFL Week 1.
NFL Pick: MIN ML (-122)
