Drake Maye struggled in the Super Bowl against the Seahawks last season. Now he gets a chance to bounce back and avenge the loss in Week 1. Julian Edlow breaks down the matchup and what he expects from Maye through the air on Wednesday night in Seattle.
Drake Maye passing yards pick vs. Seahawks
Maye is off a spectacular year in his first full season as the starting quarterback for the Patriots. He had tons of regular season success, averaging 258.5 passing yards per game, and eventually finished second in MVP voting. But Maye struggled against stronger defenses in the postseason, most notably getting dominated by Seattle in the Super Bowl.
Because of the game script with New England trailing the entire way, Maye was forced to sling it 43 times, even with a bad throwing shoulder. He wound up with 295 passing yards, but take it with a grain of salt. Maye clearly struggled in the matchup.
A lot has changed entering Week 1 in 2026. For starters, Maye is healthy. He took an injection in his shoulder prior to the Super Bowl, and while the offensive line constantly left him under pressure, Maye didn’t look like the QB we saw all season when it was time for the biggest game of the year.
With its franchise QB in place, New England made a point to have an aggressive offseason in adding to the wide receiver room. First came Romeo Doubs, who eclipsed 600 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons with the Packers. Then the worst kept secret of the offseason fell into place — the Eagles traded A.J. Brown to the Patriots to reunite with Mike Vrabel.
Brown has topped 1,000 receiving yards in six of his seven seasons in the NFL, falling just short only one time with 869 yards in 13 games in his final season in Tennessee. Brown provides Maye with a clearcut WR1 for the first time in his career, along with the WR2 addition in Doubs. The offensive line for New England was at its worst in the Super Bowl, and should be somewhat upgraded for 2026.
The improvements by the Patriots are only one piece of the puzzle here, though. Equally as important is what Seattle loses from its Super Bowl caliber secondary. Starting cornerback Riq Woolen went to the Eagles and starting safety Coby Bryant signed with the Bears.
Already forced to rework the secondary, the Seahawks are also dealing with injuries on the back end of their defense entering Week 1. Ty Okada, who started 11 games at safety last season and projected to step into a full-time starting role in 2026, has been ruled out with an ankle injury. Another safety in Nick Emmanwori is battling back from offseason ankle surgery. While Emmanwori has been practicing in limited capacity and trending towards playing, it’s unlikely he’s 100% healthy.
New England’s passing attack should look completely different than what we saw in February, as should Seattle’s thinning secondary. Look for Vrabel and the Patriots to make an early point that they can have success in the passing game against this defense. Maye cleared 232.5 passing yards in 12 of 17 regular season games in 2025, and the Week 18 under way in a game that New England barely threw the ball. I’ll back Maye to continue that success to start 2026.
NFL Pick: Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards (-113)
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