The five-day Week 1 slate of college football is behind us. We’ve now gotten a glimpse of each team at least once, to at least begin to learn what these programs are. But Week 2 of college football will continue to feed us more information. What did we see in Week 1 that was for real? What did we see in Week 1 that was a mirage? Let’s try to find out.
I’m starting off by posting three plays late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, and will be adding my plays throughout the week and updating the article.
Rutgers at Boston College (Friday – 7:30pm ET)
For my full analysis on Friday night’s Red Bandanna game between Rutgers and BC, along with my pick for the game, read my article here on DraftKings Network.
Oklahoma at Michigan (Saturday – 12pm ET)
Here’s something we saw in Week 1 that I’m saying is for real — Michigan’s offense is in big trouble.
The Wolverines are the finish everyone is talking about from Week 1. The game was lost as a four-touchdown favorite at home to Western Michigan. Controversially, a second was put back on the clock, and the rest is history.
We had a GOTY line on this Week 2 matchup on the board all summer at DraftKings. It was priced Michigan -2.5. After the Wolverines’ performance in their opener, they are now a 5.5-point home underdog. The spread touched as high as Michigan +6 before there was buy back.
So is this a Week 1 overreaction? I don’t think it was. Sure, Michigan probably overlooked Western Michigan in the game. But with the Wolverines leading 7-6 at halftime, you’d think they would’ve woken up. Outside of the Hail Mary that won the game, Michigan didn’t score in the second half.
Enter an Oklahoma defense that was among the nation’s elite last season, and projects as even more dangerous in 2026. The Sooners hosted the Wolverines in Norman in Week 2 last season, and things did not go well for Bryce Underwood. It was his first start in a major college atmosphere, and Michigan was shutout in the first half. Oklahoma went on to win the game 24-13.
The leap heading into his second season as the starting QB for Michigan was not there last Saturday night. Underwood led the Wolverines down the field for a 75-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game. It was a scripted drive that resulted in a fourth down rushing touchdown for by the QB.
Underwood was 5-for-5 passing on Michigan’s opening drive for 61 yards. His last pass of the night was the 47-yard Hail Mary that won the game. In the nearly 55 minutes of game clock between those two events, Underwood was 6-for-16 passing for 62 yards and an interception that was nearly returned for a touchdown … against Western Michigan.
Good luck cleaning that up against Brent Venables and the Sooners.
Now Michigan should be the real deal on the defensive side of the ball. It really gave up just six points to WMU on two field goals that the defense was responsible for, with Underwood’s turnovers generating the rest of the points on a short field. I’m not calling for John Mateer and OU to come into the Big House and light up the scoreboard. But it’s a very capable offense with a dual threat QB and solid weapons. We saw an extreme version of that in the Sooners’ 51-0 win over UTEP.
Oklahoma has an extra day to prepare for this one, having played its Week 1 game on Friday night. Even if we call the defenses even in this game, the Sooners have a massive QB advantage that overtakes the value of home field here.
After debating different ways to bet this one with the big adjustment to the spread, I settled on a couple of ways. Oklahoma Halftime/Fulltime, essentially the double result market to lead at halftime and win the game. But Michigan’s defense is going to show up in this game. I don’t trust Underwood and the Wolverines to score, but the Sooners won’t be running this up in a blowout. I’ll play an ALT under with OU ML in a Same Game Parlay.
CFB Pick: Oklahoma Halftime/Fulltime (-110)
CFB Pick: Oklahoma ML/UNDER 51.5 (-105)
Wake Forest at Purdue (Saturday – 12pm ET)
I spend a lot of time over the summer flipping through all the college football preview publications. Many of them projected Purdue as the worst team of the Power Conferences. However, the perception could create some value for us on Saturday afternoon in West Lafayette.
Wake Forest surprised last season and was able to grind to nine wins. Purdue won it’s first two games against lower level competition in 2025, but then lost to Notre Dame and all nine games in the Big Ten to finish 2-10. On the surface, these programs are headed in different directions.
Phil Steele is slightly more bullish on the Boilermakers than most this season. The Power Poll in his magazine has Purdue sitting at 65th in the country. The Demon Deacons aren’t much further ahead at 58th. Pick Six Previews points out how much Wake lost from last season’s roster without doing much to replace it. Only six starters return, while nine All-ACC performers are gone. The program did not add any four star level talent that transferred in.
Those losses showed when the Demon Deacons opened their season at home in a Thursday night game in Week 1. While the box score looks better than the final result actual was, Wake struggled at times with Akron. I’m not convinced this new roster is ready for a road trip against a Big Ten squad, even if it is Purdue.
Barry Odom knows what he’s doing as an experienced head coach. While the roster has plenty of turnover, Purdue returns its starting QB — Ryan Browne started all 12 games last season and looked good in the opener.
This might be a gross one, but the market agrees with the Boilermakers as home underdogs. While the number has come down about a point, I’ll grab the field goal with Purdue at home.
CFB Pick: Purdue +3 (-110)
South Florida at Army (Saturday – 12pm ET)
I like the Brian Hartline hire for the Bulls, and understand they still have decent resources to put together a solid program. However, with Alex Golesh moving over to Auburn, and taking all of his offensive weapons with him, USF lost a ton. It showed in the season opener, with South Florida winning 19-9 over FIU.
USF was respected in the market and bet up to a 14.5-point favorite in that game. But the Bulls were extremely lackluster, showing zero explosiveness in the offense. The passing game went 11-of-18 for just 100 yards. They ran 38 times for 108 yards. Yuck.
While Bryant is not an opponent you’d expect to show much resistance against Army, the rushing game was dominant to a ridiculous degree. The Black Knights ripped off 569 rushing yards on 57 carries — 10 yards per carry — with eight touchdowns.
Sure, USF will defense the run better, but I still expect Army to have a ton of success on the ground at home in this matchup. The Bulls were really disappointing on offense, and are in for a tougher task this week on the road.
CFB Pick: Army -3 (-115)
Mississippi State at Minnesota (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
The Bulldogs were electric on offense in Week 1, setting school records for yardage. That can be attributed to Kamario Taylor, who is a freakish athlete at the QB position. It all looked great against Louisiana-Monroe, and while Taylor may develop into one of the most fun quarterbacks in the country in time, Week 2 should look completely different.
Now Taylor has to go on the road to a rowdy Big Ten atmosphere to face an always scrappy Minnesota squad. Mississippi State played at one of the fastest paces in the country last season. Minnesota played at one of the slowest paces in the country last season. Both of those things held true in Week 1 this season.
But I trust the Gophers at home to play a stronger role in dictating the pace. Minnesota also drew a Thursday night game in Week 1, giving them two extra days to prepare for its first big showdown of the season.
PJ Fleck has built a consistent program here, and maintains a strong defense, experienced quarterback and strong running game. While Taylor will make some plays that make your jaw drop, I’m also expecting him to make mistakes in his first big road game.
I’ll back the Gophers as short home dogs.
CFB Pick: Minnesota +1.5 (-110)
San Diego State at UCLA (Saturday – 7:15pm ET)
San Diego State easily handled a dreadful Portland team in Week 1, but managed to give up 20 points to the Pilots. Not ideal with a matchup against UCLA on deck.
The Bruins racked up nearly 500 yards on the road against Cal in Week 1, gaining 8.5 yards per play. Despite losing the turnover battle to Cal, UCLA pulled away and defeated the Bears by 21 points. The Bruins scored 45 in the game, and it easily could’ve been more. I can’t see the Aztecs keeping up with UCLA in this one. Look for another blowout from Bob Chesney, especially with how dominant the run game was. UCLA will have no problem running this one up.
I’ll lay the points here, but would also consider playing the OVER on a UCLA team total.
CFB Pick: UCLA -12.5 (-105)
Georgia Southern at Clemson (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
I initially was interested in taking +21 with the underdog in this one, but as the number started shrinking, I looked into more markets. I quickly realized that the better play was the total.
Clemson looked like it was playing offense blindfolded on Saturday night as LSU. The Tigers managed 1.5 yards per carry, and the passing game might have been worse. Yes, LSU dropped over 50 points, which isn’t great for Clemson’s defense, but a lot of that falls on just how dysfunctional the offense was.
Clemson’s offense could not stay on the field. The defense was faced with an impossible task against the LSU offense. This time around, Clemson should be able to have its typical strong defensive performance against Georgia Southern. This Georgia Southern team also pitched a shutout in Week 1, 31-0 against Charleston Southern. Not the toughest opponent, but the defense looked good.
The bottom line is this — I have zero faith in Clemson’s offense, even against the Sun Belt. As a bitter under bettor in the Clemson/LSU game, that only lost because of how inept Clemson was, not because they showed any life on offense. I’ll make Clemson prove it can score in Week 2.
CFB Pick: UNDER 55.5 (-110)
Iowa State at Iowa (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
Iowa has lost consecutive games in this rivalry, but I expect a completely different scene on Saturday night.
With the departure of Matt Campbell to Penn State, Iowa State doesn’t return a single starter from the 2025 team. The Cyclones are built primarily off transfer talent from non-Power schools, and even the FCS level. I have Iowa State ranked as one of the worst five teams in the Power 4, and I expect a long night against this Iowa defense.
While Northern Illinois is one of the worst FBS teams in the country, Iowa still completely embarrassed it in Week 1. UNI was unable to gain any yards on the ground and got shutout in a 40-0 loss. UNI didn’t gain a first down until late in the game. Meanwhile, Iowa posted over 500 yards of offense, and got a typical special teams touchdown.
Off consecutive losses in the rivalry, I expect the Hawkeyes to be out for blood on Saturday night at home. Virtually none of these players for Iowa State have been a part of this rivalry. They are about to learn what its all about. Iowa’s going to look to squeeze the life out of the Cyclones, and should be able to do so successfully.
We’re dealing with a big spread here, but this has blowout potential written all over it. The Hawkeyes have the best WR room they’ve had in years, and will be able to move the ball through the air. Combine that with a lethal running game, and Iowa will find its points in this game. Given the recent history of this matchup, Kirk Ferentz has all the motivation he needs to make this a lopsided score.
Pick Six Previews made the number on this game Iowa -21, showing plenty of value on the Hawkeyes. I’m calling for a one sided game that’s dominated by the Hawkeyes on Saturday night in primetime at Kinnick Stadium.
CFB Pick: Iowa -13.5 (-120) – 2-units
Memphis at Boise State (Saturday – 6pm ET)
Moneyline Parlay Pick: Click here for my moneyline parlay on Saturday that kicks off at 6pm starting with Boise State.
For more analysis check out our College Football homepage on DraftKings Network.
