Last season, both the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers went 12-5, but that was good enough for only second in the division. The Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 on their way to the Super Bowl. The NFC West is no joke, but there’s been turnover.
Seattle replaced Kenneth Walker III with rookie Jadarian Price at running back while offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to take on the head job of the Las Vegas Raiders. The 49ers continue to anger the injury gods: wide receiver Ricky Pearsall is done for the season with a knee injury, defensive tackle Alfred Collins is out for the year with a torn patellar tendon, and tight end George Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles.
The Rams? Hmmm, let’s see. Los Angeles traded for Myles Garrett while coaxing Aaron Donald out of retirement. The back end of the defense was bolstered with the acquisitions of Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Kam Curl. Not bad.
As a result, the Rams are -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the NFC West and massive Super Bowl favorites at +500. The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are tied for the second-lowest at +1000. And why not? The defense could be one of the best, while the offense that led the NFL with 518 points last season returns intact.
But, but, but…
This is why they play the games, and the Rams’ first start is Thursday against division rival 49ers.
These teams split a pair of regular-season matchups last season, with the road team winning both affairs. In Week 5, San Francisco eked out the 26-23 overtime victory in Los Angeles. The 49ers ran 19 more plays, but the Rams racked up 49 more total yards. San Francisco dominated the time of possession, 40:04 to 26:20. Matthew Stafford was brilliant, completing 30 of his 47 passes for 389 yards and three touchdowns. Still, two fumbles by Stafford and Kyren Williams were the difference. Neither run game could get going, as Christian McCaffrey rushed 22 times for 57 yards while Williams carried 14 times for 65 yards.
In the Week 10 rematch, Los Angeles went into San Francisco and strutted out with the 42-26 win. The total yardage was similar, 401 to 393, but the Rams racked up seven more first downs, were more successful on the ground, and had zero penalties, while the 49ers turned the ball over twice. Stafford went 24-for-36 with 280 yards and four touchdowns, while Williams handled 14 carries for 73 yards and a pair of scores. McCaffrey rushed 12 times for 30 yards.
The big bugaboo for the 49ers last season was the lack of pressure. San Francisco ranked 30th in pressure rate, and its 20 sacks were the fewest in the NFL by a wide margin. The injury to Nick Bosa was huge because the 49ers don’t like to blitz and want to keep defenders in coverage. San Francisco ranked 29th in blitz rate but had no players who could generate pressure from the front. Raheem Morris is replacing Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator, and he is known for scheming pressure and disguising coverages on the back end. It may take time for the defense to learn the scheme, but the result could be just what the doctor ordered. Morris was the Rams’ defensive coordinator from 2021 to 2023, so he may have intimate knowledge of the Rams’ offense.
Los Angeles enters as a 3.5-point home favorite with -198 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. San Francisco is a +164 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 48.5 points.
This game is in Melbourne, Australia, with the Rams considered the home team.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF vs LAR)
Captain’s Picks
Matthew Stafford ($14,700 CP): My initial thought leaned toward a lower-scoring game, with the Rams’ defense and run game taking center stage. Maybe it’s the excruciating heat wave in Los Angeles right now that’s messing with my brain, but I’m liking the full Rams passing onslaught. One of the main reasons is that the 49ers will be learning a new defensive scheme, one that relies on deception and pressure. That could lead to communication lapses and seams opening up on the back end. As a result, I like Stafford to go nuts in this one.
UTIL Plays
Puka Nacua ($11,200): If I like Stafford, I have to like his bona fide number one receiver. Nacua was fourth in targets last season with 166 — despite missing a game. He garnered double-digit targets in 13 contests. Targets are earned, and Nacua has certainly been deserving from the outset of his career. During his rookie season, he received 160 targets, then was peppered for 106 the following season in only 11 games. Nacua has cleared 20 FPTS in 22 of his 44 career games.
Davante Adams ($9,200): Adams isn’t the target hog that Nacua is. There is only one football. That said, he still garnered 114 last season despite missing three games. He received double-digit targets three times. Where Adams makes his money is in the red zone, as he led the Rams pass catchers with 34 red zone looks, converting those opportunities into an NFL-best 14 receiving touchdowns. The beauty of the Rams’ passing attack is that it is highly concentrated between Nacua and Adams, so if Stafford goes nuts, it’s highly likely that he will bring Nacua and Adams along for the ride.
Tutu Atwell ($2,400): Atwell has 179 targets in four seasons with the Rams. In 10 games last season, he garnered 15. Atwell might only get one or two opportunities in this one, but if he connects, it’s probably going to the house. Last season, Atwell had an aDOT of 15.3. If he qualified, that would’ve been the eighth-best in the NFL. Atwell is a burner who runs a 4.32 40-yard dash and had a long of 88 yards last season. As mentioned in the Stafford section, the 49ers defense could have some growing pains, which could lead to miscues.
Fades
Kyren Williams ($8,600): I kind of hate this fade because the Rams should have plenty of opportunities on offense. That said, if I like the passing onslaught, that doesn’t leave much room for fantasy goodies in the run game. Blake Corum’s presence also takes some of the shine off Williams. In addition, Morris defenses have often utilized five-man fronts, and he’s guided some good run defenses in the past. All that leads to my initial thesis: the Rams should prioritize the passing game.
Outcome
These teams know each other intimately, so there shouldn’t be any surprises. Playing in Melbourne adds an unknown variable, but even without Aaron Donald, the Rams are too much to ignore on both sides of the ball to pass on.
