It’s been a wild couple of seasons for the Vikings, who are now priced as the worst team in the NFC North. I’m not sure that’s going to be the case in 2026, which could offer us a strong betting opportunity if this roster can play up to its potential. Let’s breakdown this season’s win total on Minnesota.
Minnesota Vikings O/U 8.5 Wins
The Vikings are being priced as the worst team in their division. They have the longest odds to win the NFC North, and the lowest win total of the four teams. But are we sure Minnesota isn’t closer to the top of the division than the bottom?
Remember, this is a team that finished 14-3 in 2024, and won five straight games to end the 2025 season. Of course, between those two accomplishments, the Vikings began last season with a 4-8 record, so there is downside. Given the damage Sam Darnold has done to the rest of the NFL over the last couple of seasons, I think we have to admit he’s generally been overlooked. But it’s also important to point out what Minnesota accomplished the last time it had stability at the quarterback position.
Sure, those 14 wins in 2024 probably involved a bit of luck, and Darnold is a better QB than anything the Vikings have had in recent seasons. But the QB position literally cannot get any worse than it was last season, and the 2025 Vikings still found their way to nine wins.
J.J. McCarthy made 10 starts last season, and was part of the reason the Vikings had such a shaky middle of the season. The former top-10 pick wound up with just 11 passing touchdowns to 12 interceptions, and was taking nearly three sacks per game. Minnesota actually showed that late season improvement while playing a game of musical chairs at the QB position — Carson Wentz wound up starting five games and Max Brosmer started two (and played in eight).
In total, that trio wound up combining for 18 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions, while taking 60 sacks. As I mentioned, the quarterback play for Minnesota could not have been worse in 2025 — and yet this team still finished above .500.
Enter Kyler Murray. Sure, the perception of Murray is pretty low right now, but this is still a massive quarterback upgrade in Minnesota. Coming off a season in which he played just five games, Murray should be both fresh and motivated for 2026. He’s off some injuries over the past few years, but the offensive line of the Vikings is also a massive upgrade over the protection Murray was getting in Arizona, which should help keep him upright. He’s also on a prove-it contract, where he could really wind up cashing in big if he can establish himself this season.
The last time we saw Murray healthy was in 2024, when he played in all 17 games and put up very strong numbers. The former No. 1 overall pick completed over 68% of his passes for 3,851 yards and 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He also mixed in for 572 rushing yards and five more trips to the end zone.
This handicap really boils down to simply betting on Kyler Murray still being a capable quarterback. The Vikings have cleared 8.5 wins in consecutive seasons, and won 13 or more games twice over the last four seasons. This roster is stacked with talent on all levels of the defense, the offensive line and the offensive playmakers. It also has a strong coaching staff on both sides of the ball, and seems to get the most out of quarterbacks, as long as your name isn’t J.J. McCarthy. It just needed a quarterback to be plugged in to reach its potential, and that’s what it got in Murray.
The early money on Minnesota at DraftKings does seem bullish when it comes to the win total, with 82% of the tickets for 94% of the handle coming in on OVER 8.5 wins (as of August 1).
As you can tell, backing Murray to still be a capable quarterback (and even a very good QB) is something I’m willing to do, and feel strongly that it’ll result in wins for Minnesota. I’ll back the Vikings to go OVER 8.5 wins, and think they are worth a look for both ALT win total overs and have a chance to win the NFC North.
NFL Pick: Vikings OVER 8.5 Wins (-110)
