On Monday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Wednesday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.
Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays have performed since Monday, as well as the systems on the whole.
The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Home underdogs ATS after a loss
This system just got a big boost over the last seven days. Following this recent 7-2 run, this play is 26-16-2 over the last 30 days. But even if you take out the nine games that fit this system over the last seven days, this play came through over 54% of the time in the other 35 games that fit this system over the last month.
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 22
System - 1-2-1
My Picks - 0-1
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 24
Three games fit this system on Wednesday:
- WAS vs. MIN
- DAL vs. PHX
- SAS vs. OKC
Among these three dogs, San Antonio has the best record against the spread in this setting at 6-6-1. Hardly something to write home about, but there is something else at play for the Spurs.
Road favorites playing on the second leg of a back-to-back this season are 12-17-1 ATS. That’s the setting the Thunder find themselves in. They did cover in the one other instance they’ve been in this setting this season, but one game isn’t a sample size to trust either way. Four games isn’t necessarily either, but knowing that San Antonio is 3-1 ATS in the same setting sure doesn’t hurt my feelings toward this play.
PICK: SA +8
SYSTEM: Over on total when home favorites are on second leg of back-to-back
This play has been one of the best system plays of the season, hitting nearly 62% of the time over 55 games. And there’s no sign of this play slowing down. Over the last 30 days, this play is 15-10 (60%).
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 22
System - 0-1
My Picks - 0-1* (*if you waited on Monday’s play and got it at the closing line, you’re 1-0.)
SYSTEM ANALYSIS FOR JANUARY 25
There’s no play for this system on Wednesday’s slate. Unfortunately, the three games that might fit this system on Thursday don’t seem likely to do so, either. The three potential home favorites playing on the second leg of a back-to-back are WAS, MIA and GSW.
But should any of these be system matches, here are how the potential favorites and their Thursday opponents teams have performing in this system:
- WAS has not played as a home favorite on the second leg of a back-to-back throughout 2023-24.
- UTA is 1-2 to the over when facing a home favorite that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
- MIA is 1-0 to the over when playing as a home favorite on the second leg of a back-to-back throughout 23-24.
- BOS has not played as a road underdog against a home team that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
- GSW is 2-1 to the over when playing as a home favorite on the second leg of a back-to-back throughout 23-24
- SAC is 1-3 to the over when facing a home favorite that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
Also, if GSW is a dog, they’re still a system match for a season-long play I’ve been on since opening night. When the underdog in a Western Conference game is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, the over is 24-12-1. (POR-HOU is a system match for this season-long system on Wednesday, by the way.)
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.