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NBA Betting Systems: Trending Basketball Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar utilizes the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub to search for potential NBA plays over the next week based on betting systems that have stood out recently.

NBA: Orlando Magic at New York Knicks Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Wednesday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.

Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays performed on Tuesday, as well as the systems on the whole.

The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.

One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.

SYSTEM: Over on total in non-conference games when East is favored

We played this system to start the 2024 portion of the schedule, and it continues to be a reliable option.

Over the last seven days, the system has popped off at 9-4. While a near-70% success rate over the last week doesn’t seem sustainable, this has proven to be a strong season-long investment so far. Over the last 30 days, the over is 25-13-1 in this setting. On the season, it’s 45-30-2.

Looking at this system’s history, the over went 130-99-1 last season. That means regression should come at some point, but that’s still a strong success rate.

SYSTEM PERFORMANCE ON JANUARY 16

System - 1-0

My Pick - 1-0 (DEN-PHI over 228.5)

SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 17

Looking at the table from Tuesday’s article, there were five games that could’ve fit this system. But with odds now being available, only three games fit on Wednesday:

  • NYK vs. HOU
  • BOS vs. SAS
  • BKN @ POR

There are four teams that have seen the over hit in this setting often. The Rockets are 7-2 to the over when they’re an underdog against an Eastern Conference team. The Spurs are 8-4-1 to the over in this setting.

As for the East favorites, New York is 4-3 to the over in this setting and Boston is 7-3. If the Knicks were to maintain what they’ve done in this setting so far, bettors who back them would be doing just fine with a 57.1% success rate. That’s only a smidge worse than the Spurs’ success rate in this setting, but San Antonio has a larger sample size — like Houston and Boston.

One thing that’s very interesting about NYK-HOU is the Knicks average just over 220 points per game in this setting while the Rockets average just over 240. With the total set at 220.5, that’s a very appealing play. And while I really like SA-BOS because of the sample size those two teams have, NYK-HOU gets the slight edge because of the actual number set for Wednesday’s game in New York.

PICK: NYK-HOU over 220.5


SYSTEM: Home favorites ATS following a loss

This play popped off last week, going 8-2 to bring its hit rate to 32-28-1 over the last 30 days. That said, it’s essentially been a coin-flip play this season at 82-79-1.

SYSTEM PERFORMANCE ON JANUARY 16

System - 1-0

My Pick - 1-0 (LAC -6.5)

SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 17

Two games from Tuesday’s slate fit this system:

  • NYK vs. HOU
  • NOP vs. CHA

The Knicks are 3-1 in this setting, so taking them ATS gets the initial edge over the Pelicans, who are 2-2 in this setting. Looking at overall home record ATS, New York is 7-5 ATS and New Orleans is 7-6 – slight difference, but less of a separator.

When it comes to the dogs, Houston is 5-10-1 ATS as a road dog. Charlotte is 7-13 as a road dog. Both are promising for the systems, but the edge stays with New York — and that’s ultimately where I land again. The deciding factor: New Orleans is a double-digit favorite.

As of writing, New Orleans’ number is set at 12.5 points. If home favorites were playing with that line every game, they’d be 122-266 ATS this season — the Pelicans would be 4-9 ATS. New York, on the other hand, is laying five points. If that was the spread every time they played as a home favorite, the Knicks would be 8-4 ATS.

PICK: Knicks -5


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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.