The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Over on total in non-conference games when East is favored
We played this system to start the 2024 portion of the schedule, and it continues to be a reliable option.
Over the last seven days, the system has popped off at 9-4. While a near-70% success rate over the last week doesn’t seem sustainable, this has proven to be a strong season-long investment so far. Over the last 30 days, the over is 25-13-1 in this setting. On the season, it’s 45-30-2.
Looking at this system’s history, the over went 130-99-1 last season. That means regression should come at some point, but that 2022-23 mark still a strong success rate.
On Tuesday, there’s only one option for this system, DEN-PHI. The Nuggets haven’t been in this setting yet — they’ve only been favored when facing East teams this season. However, the over is 6-3 when Philly has been in this setting this season.
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MATCHES: Over on total in non-conference games when East is favored
|DEN vs. PHI
|MIN vs. DET
|IND vs. SAC
|SA vs. CHA
|SA vs. WAS
|BKN vs. LAC
|SA vs. BOS
|DEN vs. BOS
|MEM vs. CHI
|DEN vs. WAS
|CHA vs. NOP
|IND vs. POR
|BOS vs. HOU
|HOU vs. NYK
|BKN vs. LAL
|IND vs. PHO
|BKN vs. POR
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 16
DEN-PHI over 228.5
SYSTEM: Home favorites ATS following a loss
This play popped off last week, going 8-2 to bring its hit rate to 32-28-1 over the last 30 days. That said, it’s essentially been a coin-flip play this season at 82-79-1.
This one also stands out on Tuesday because LAC is coming off one day’s rest. Add that wrinkle to this system, the hit rate of this play improves to 48-42-2 on the season.
Again, looking specifically at the lone system fit for Tuesday, underdogs that are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back following a loss — like OKC — are 29-36-1 ATS this season.
NOTE: No table laying out potential plays for this system throughout the week because this play dependent on the outcome of the favorite’s previous game.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 16
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.