Well, the heater is over. I tempted fate last Friday with three plus-money bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and I was quickly humbled with an 0-3 night. We remain 30-21 on article plays for the season as a whole, but I don’t want to make this a trend.
Let’s get back on that horse and find some winners on this evening’s small slate.
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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Astros ML (-115)
This is a good pitching matchup. Framber Valdez has cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League the past few seasons, while Jose Berrios seems like he’s put a dreadful 2022 campaign behind him. Still, if I had to believe in one of the two for one game, it would obviously be the former. Valdez has been on an entirely different level since the beginning of May. In his last 40.0 innings, the left-hander is in possession of a 1.80 ERA and a 2.26 FIP. He’s suddenly an elite strikeout arm, with a 30.7% strikeout rate in this span, and according to a 5.2% walk rate, he no longer issues free passes. In a word, Valdez is him, and it’s easy to see why the Astros have won his past five outings.
Berrios has also been solid since May 1, registering a 2.95 ERA, yet a 4.67 FIP is far less inviting. Really, that’s been a trend for the whole season, as the right-hander’s 3.66 ERA is nearly a full-run lower than his 4.58 xERA. Again, this doesn’t mean Berrios is due for serious regression or is terrible — he’s surrendered just two earned runs in his last 17.2 innings — it simply means I favor Valdez. Especially considering the Blue Jays own an underwhelming 98 wRC+ versus LHPs in 2023.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Spencer Strider to Record a Win (+100)
At this point, I’m just looking for a fair price to fade the Mets. Understandably, the Braves are -190 favorites on the moneyline this evening in Atlanta, so I guess we’ll have to get creative. Well, sort of creative. It’s not exactly re-inventing the wheel when you back the success of Spencer Strider. The sophomore RHP has been downright dominant in 2023, riding a league-high 40.6% strikeout rate to a 2.60 FIP and a 2.70 xERA through 12 starts. In an unsurprising twist, Strider has won half those outings, with the Braves sitting 10-2 overall when their young ace takes the mound.
This is probably where I should remind people that Justin Verlander is also amazing, despite a milquetoast 4.54 FIP across 36.0 injury-plagued innings in 2023. However, this isn’t really about him. This is about New York being aggressively mid all season. The Mets come into Thursday’s action 17th in ISO (.155) and 20th in wOBA (.313). In fact, the team only has one qualified hitter with a wOBA above .350, Pete Alonso, and that man left Wednesday’s loss after taking a fastball off the wrist. New York has dropped five straight contests and is a putrid 6-18 in its last 24 matchups with opponents above .500. Go hug a Mets fan. They need it.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.