The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM PICKS FOR NOVEMBER 15
MIN-PHX over 224
SYSTEM: Over on total when road team is playing on second leg of a back-to-back
There wasn’t a huge sample size for this system over the last seven days, with only five games applying. But the play going 4-1 brought to my attention that this system is now 12-7-1 (60%) on the season.
Last season, this play had a hit rate over 53%, which is playable. However, it does indicate there’s a decent level of regression in order. But another trend that’s been noticeable within this system is how the total performs when underdogs are in this setting.
Throughout 2022-23, the over had a hit rate north of 55% when road underdogs were playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Of the 20 games this system has applied to this season, 14 have featured a road underdog playing on the second leg of a back to back. In those games, the over is just 7-6-1 — so this play still has room to thrive.
SYSTEM MATCHES: Over on total when road team is playing on second leg of a back-to-back
|NYK @ BOS||N/A||DAL @ WAS||N/A||N/A||NYK @ CHA||OKC @ POR|
|WAS @ TOR||ORL @ CHI|
|CHI @ MIL||MIN @ PHX|
SYSTEM PICK FOR NOVEMBER 13
SYSTEM: Home underdog ATS following a win
Home underdogs have been cooking in this system, covering in eight of the last 10 games that they were in this setting (with one of the failed covers being a push). On the season, the play is 14-7-2, which is a hit rate north of 60%.
Last season, this play hit 52% of the time. But take out the seven pushes across the 173 games this applied to and the system had a success rate north of 54%.
As we zoom in a little more, we see that this system was specifically successful for one conference. Home underdogs coming off a win went 35-18 ATS (66%) in Western Conference matchups last season.
NOTE: No table for this system because odds are unavailable as of writing and this play is also dependent on the outcome of the underdog’s previous game.
SYSTEM PICK FOR NOVEMBER 13
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.