The Rob Manfred era of Major League Baseball is entering its swan song. On Friday, Manfred announced that his current five-year term will be his last as MLB’s commissioner. The 65-year-old will be stepping down when that term is up in January of 2029, nearly 14 years after succeeding Bud Selig back in 2015.
Manfred has been deeply unpopular with baseball fans for pretty much the entirety of that time — he’s booed each time he appears publicly, as is commissioner tradition — for reasons both structural and personal. Yes, he’s a lifelong labor lawyer who’s never really shown much aptitude with or passion for baseball in the way that might allow him to connect with fans. (He’s also never been a particularly comfortable public speaker.) But it’s also true that none of those things are the primary criteria for the job: The commissioner works at the behest of the 30 team owners, and is responsible for protecting and shepherding their respective investments.
Given that context, what can we expect from the person who eventually replaces Manfred? It’s hard to imagine things will change all that radically; no matter how much the game changes over the next five years, the nature of the job will remain largely the same. With that caveat, here are five potential candidates to replace Manfred come 2029, listed alphabetically.
1. Theo Epstein
Minority owner and part-time advisor, Fenway Sports Group
If you were to take a straw poll of fans right now, Epstein would probably be the clear favorite, both from his successful front-office stints with the Red Sox and Cubs and his role in steering the league toward recent rule changes that have given the sport a shot in the arm. Epstein’s position as a senior advisor with the league from 2021-2023 gives him knowledge of the politics at play within the league office, and he’d like command respect from the people that matter. Whether the owners feel he’s cutthroat enough to accomplish their goals – and whether Epstein even wants the job – is another matter.
2. Noah Garden
MLB’s deputy commissioner, business and media
Baseball’s media landscape is changing by the minute, and navigating the future of streaming and direct-to-consumer packages might be the single biggest challenge facing the league over the next few years. Garden oversees critical areas like broadcasting, corporate partnerships and gambling — in short, the sport’s core money-making ventures. That experience could work in his favor when the time comes, as owners vote first and foremost with their wallets.
3. Dan Halem
MLB’s deputy commissioner, baseball administration
Of course, like any elected position, earning the role of MLB commissioner is as much about politics as anything else. Reading the tea leaves, Halem seems to be the early favorite within league circles to succeed Manfred — not least because he replaced Manfred as the league’s chief labor negotiator upon Manfred’s ascension to the commissioner’s chair back in 2014. While Manfred took all the heat, Halen was the one at the table with the MLBPA during the 2021-22 lockout, which no doubt endeared him to owners around the league.
4. Morgan Sword
MLB’s executive vice president, baseball operations
Sword is the league’s logistics man: He was a central figure in getting the sport back up and running amid the pandemic in 2020, and he’s been front and center in terms of actually implementing various rule changes over the last couple of years. Sword is not yet 40, which would likely work against him, and he also might not have experience in the areas that matter most to owners. He’s an up-and-comer to watch, however.
5. Tom Werner
Chairman, Boston Red Sox
Want a wild card? Werner was the runner-up to Manfred in 2014, falling short after a grueling six rounds of voting — MLB’s first contested vote for a new commissioner in almost 50 years. Werner has a background in broadcasting, which could come in handy, but he’s also 73 and might not have the stomach for politicking his way into the job as he pushes 80. It also seems unlikely the owners would approve a commissioner who may be only a few years away from retirement himself, but he has friends in high places.