With just over a week left in the Major League Baseball regular season, all 30 MLB teams are in action this Saturday with playoff spots still up for grabs and many young players looking to prove their potential going forward. With 15 games on the scoreboard, including eight under the lights, Saturday offers plenty of strong home run props to consider. Looking at the matchups, game environment, and current form of the hitters’ props available, my top three home run props for this Saturday are from Lawrence Butler, Randy Arozarena and Cody Bellinger.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Butler | Athletics | Butler has 5 HR in his last 12 games and 17 on the season. He will face Tanner Bibee, who has allowed 28 HR this season, including 21 HR to lefties, who have a 13% barrel rate against him in Cleveland. |
| Randy Arozarena | Mariners | Arozarena has 25 HR this season, including five in his last 17 games, and he has typically smashed lefties with a .403 wOBA and 10 HR on that side of his splits. He gets a great matchup at Coors Field against lefty Jose Quintana, who is coming off the 60-day IL. |
| Cody Bellinger | Yankees | Bellinger has 4 HR in his last nine games and is on the strong side of the splits against Brandon Pfaadt, who he is 2-for-7 against with a pair of HR against in his career. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+538)
While the A’s have suffered multiple key injuries and faded to another disappointing season, Butler has surged in the second half of the year and is putting together a strong finishing stretch to prove he still has a big role in this offense going forward. He hit his 17th homer of the year in Tampa earlier this week, and has 11 of those 17 homers since August 1.
Butler is hitting .273 since the All-Star break with a .368 wOBA and .232 ISO. He has five homers in his last 12 games, although his batting average has dipped a little during that span despite a 16.7% barrel rate. He’s hitting the ball extremely well right now and has the potential to go big fly in any matchup.
If the Guardians and Athletics can avoid the rain on Saturday, Butler will take on Tanner Bibee, who has allowed 28 homers in 31 starts this season, including 19 in his 17 home starts and 21 home runs to lefties on the year. Lefties have a .334 wOBA and 13.0% barrel rate against Bibee at Progressive Field this year, and Butler will be on the strong of those splits on Saturday.
While he hasn’t homered off Bibee in his career, Butler is 5-for-8 against him with a walk and two RBI.
Randy Arozarena Hit a Home Run (+470)
Arozarena and the Mariners are at Coors Field again on Saturday. They’ll take on Jose Quintana (elbow), who will be activated from the 60-day IL before Saturday’s start. The veteran lefty made nine starts for the Rockies earlier this year, posting a 5.27 ERA and allowing six homers in nine outings that spanned 41 innings.
Arozarena has been very productive all year despite the Mariners’ disappointing season and has 25 homers, 23 stolen bases, and a .373 wOBA. He has been especially good against lefties like Quintana with a .310 batting average, .403 wOBA and 10 on his home runs on that side of his splits.
Coming down the stretch, Arozarena has been one of the Mariners’ best hitters, smashing five homers in his last 17 games while going 25-for-67 (.373). He had three hits on Friday night in Seattle’s 5-4 win over Colorado, and his last home run came last Sunday in this two-homer performance:
The 31-year-old righty is in a great spot to go yard at Coors, which is still a homer-happy setting even though the wind is forecast to be blowing gently in.
Cody Bellinger to Hit a Home Run (+585)
Bellinger has surprisingly long odds in this matchup on Saturday night at Chase Field. He has only 16 homers on the year, but has hit four homers in his last nine games while hitting .405 (15-for-37). With Aaron Judge back on the IL, Bellinger will have to help carry the offense down the stretch.
Bellinger only has a 37.8% hard-hit rate on the year, but that has jumped in September to a 50% hard-hit rate and his barrel rate has also trended in the right direction.
He’ll be on the strong side of the splits on Saturday night against Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt, who has allowed 14 homers on the season. Lefties like Bellinger have hit 12 of those 14 homers with a .451 SLG and .329 wOBA. Bellinger has also had success against Pfaadt in the past, going 2-for-7 with a pair of home runs in their previous meetings.
Based on that track record and his current momentum, Bellinger is a nice long-shot play to close out the night of home run props.
