The champagne is hardly dry from the Texas Rangers’ World Series celebration, but every team in the league is already shifting their attention to the offseason. Free agency officially begins on Monday, Nov. 6, and while it’ll likely take some time for the Hot Stove to get boiling, there’s no better time to get you ready with a ranking of the 25 best players on the market as things stand right now. Let’s get to it.
Top 25 MLB free agents
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP
You may have heard of him. Not even elbow surgery, slated to keep him off the mound until 2025 but not expected to prevent him from contributing as a hitter next season, will prevent Ohtani from becoming the richest man in baseball. And why shouldn’t he be? He’s ranked in the top 10 in both ERA+ and OPS+ since making his stateside debut, and while there is some risk inherent in the unprecedented, it’s a risk you take for a player the game has quite literally never seen before. The only question now is which team will be lucky enough to land him.
Suitors: Ideally everyone, but most likely the Dodgers and Giants — with someone like the Mets looming if he wants to venture away from the West Coast
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP
In a relatively down free-agent class, the No. 2 spot behind Ohtani goes to someone who’s never pitched in the United States. But make no mistake: Yamamoto is more than legit, a five-time All-Star and three-time ERA champion in Japan who just won the NPB’s Cy Young and MVP awards this season — oh, and he just turned 25. The righty gets up into the mid-90s with his fastball, and plays off that heater with a solid curveball and a wipeout splitter that calls to mind the ghost fork Kodai Senga just used to tear up the Majors. We’ve seen enough pitchers make this transition at this point — like Senga, for example — to feel good about Yamamoto’s chances, and to say that he has clearly the highest upside of any available pitcher this winter.
Suitors: Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers
3. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B
How much are you buying his top-line numbers in 2023? Bellinger looked so lost over the last few years that the Dodgers eventually non-tendered him last winter, only to watch him reemerge as something close to his MVP self with the Cubs. Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 games for Chicago, splitting his time between center field and first base. So what’s the downside? Well, he was awful in 2021 and 2022, and his 2023 production came with middling batted-ball metrics, raising the possibility that this is fool’s gold. Potential suitors have to decide how much they want to buy in on this version of Bellinger, but his defensive value and upside mean that someone inevitably will.
Suitors: Yankees, Cubs, Giants
4. Aaron Nola, RHP
Every time we’re ready to crown Nola a true ace, he throws up a clunker like 2023, with a 4.46 ERA and the lowest K/9 rate of his career. The righty did redeem that a bit with a better showing in postseason, but he’s been great in the recent past, and he’s been remarkably durable at a time when that’s a rarity for a starting pitcher. He may not ever be the pitcher we’ve been dreaming on since his breakout 2018, but he’s the sturdiest option among a polarizing crop of starters.
Suitors: Phillies, Cardinals, Diamondbacks
5. Blake Snell, LHP
Based on how great he was in 2023 — he’s the odds-on favorite to win his second Cy Young later this month — you might be wondering how we could have Snell below Nola here. But the answer is simple: Snell’s ceiling is the roof, but his command issues make his floor a lot lower than you’d like (his ERA+ from 2019 through 2022 was a just-okay 104) and he hasn’t shown the ability to handle a full workload year after year in the way that Nola has. This marked the first season in which Snell cleared even 130 innings since his last Cy Young campaign back in 2018, and entering his age-31 season, teams will have to think twice before handing him the bag.
Suitors: Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Mets
6. Matt Chapman, 3B
At this point, Chapman is who he is: an elite defensive third baseman who’s among the league’s streakiest players at the plate, capable of catching fire (1.152 OPS in April, .908 in July) or disappearing (.585 in May, .633 in June) for months at a time. Of course, those streaks generally work out to a slighty above-average bat, which combined with his glove makes the 30-year-old still a very valuable player — especially in a market largely bereft of infielders. It’s not a player without some significant warts, though.
Suitors: Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers
7. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
Rodriguez could technically still opt in to the three years and $49 million left on his deal with the Tigers, but given how great he was for long stretches of 2023, that seems unlikely. The lefty posted a career-best ERA and WHIP this season, showcasing improved velocity and command. How repeatable that performance is remains an open question, but he seems like a reasonably safe bet to remain a mid-rotation starter for at least the next few seasons.
Suitors: Yankees, Phillies, Tigers, Mets
8. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Speaking of reasonably safe bets to remain mid-rotation starters: Montgomery won’t be quite as dominant as he was during the Rangers’ run to a world title, but he can be the glue of any starting rotation — durable, efficient and effective. Don’t cast him as the lead, but if you need around 150-180 above-average innings — and really, who doesn’t? — Monty is as bankable as they come.
Suitors: Cardinals, Rangers, Dodgers
9. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
The last time we saw Kershaw, he was getting bludgeoned in shocking fashion in Game 1 of the NLDS. At this point in his career, the future Hall of Famer isn’t taking the ball 30 times a year (or even 25), and the diminished fastball velocity we saw down the stretch of 2023 is cause for concern. Still, postseason disaster notwithstanding, Kershaw was awfully good when he was on the mound, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do so again in 2024. It’s hard to imagine him anywhere but Dodger Stadium, although maybe the hometown Rangers can coax a change of destination.
Suitors: Dodgers, Rangers
10. Sonny Gray, RHP
Here are a few pitchers with a worse ERA+ than Gray’s since 2019: Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, Zack Wheeler. The righty flies under the radar a bit, and yes, he’s about to turn 34. But his breaking balls remain as wicked as ever, and he’d look good as a No. 3 starter for a whole bunch of would-be contenders after posting a 2.79 mark with the Twins this year.
Suitors: Twins, Cardinals, Diamondbacks
11. Lucas Giolito, RHP
It’s hard to imagine a worse walk year than the one Giolito just slogged through, in which he was traded twice and put up ERAs of 6.88 and 7.05 in both of his new destinations. Still, he’s only 29, and he was among the better righties in the game from 2019 to 2021; there simply aren’t enough viable starting pitchers to go around this winter, and someone will talk themselves into Giolito as a bounce-back candidate with a fresh start and a change of scenery.
Suitors: Padres, Dodgers, Rays
12. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
We were denied Hoskins’ potentially triumphant return in the World Series, and now the first baseman enters what figures to be a very tricky free agency: Bat-only righties on the wrong side of 30 are not a particularly in-demand demographic, even when they’ve got a career 125 OPS+. He could accept Philly’s qualifying offer and try to rebuild his market in 2024, or someone looking for one more piece to put them over the top could poach him.
Suitors: Phillies, Brewers, Padres
13. Kevin Kiermaier, OF
Similar to his former Blue Jays teammate Chapman, Kiermaier is who he is: a ridiculous athlete who can go and get it with the best of them in center field, but also one who’s guaranteed to miss some time due to injury and will at best be average with the bat. He’s also entering his mid-30s now, and his is not a profile that tends to age gracefully — although he is coming off his best offense season in a number of years.
Suitors: Twins, Marlins, Red Sox
14. Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B
Candelario isn’t flashy; he doesn’t put up eye-popping power numbers, and he won’t steal you very many bases. What he does do, however, is hit, and hit, and hit some more, while playing both corner-infield spots credibly. The switch-hitter was a line-drive machine for both the Nationals and Cubs this season, his third in the last four in which he’s posted a well-above-average OPS+. Again, it’s not the profile with the highest ceiling, but he’d look good in anyone’s lineup while providing some useful flexibility.
Suitors: Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Yankees
15. Josh Hader, LHP
Breaking the bank for a closer certainly isn’t for every team, but Hader was as nasty as ever in 2023, with 85 Ks and a 1.28 ERA in 56.1 innings for the Padres. Of course, relievers are notoriously volatile as a group, and the lefty will turn 30 next year, but someone is bound to pay up here — especially considering the state of the rest of the relief market.
Suitors: Rangers, Phillies, Braves
16. Jung Hoo Lee, OF
Lee is just a really solid all-around player, hitting .340/.407/.491 across seven seasons in Korea while playing a plus center field. He’s not going to hit for very much power, and teams are always hesitant to project how players will do making the jump from the KBO to the Majors, but Lee’s contact skills — he had 23 Ks to 49 walks in 2023 — and athleticism figure to entice someone looking for an outfielder.
Suitors: Giants, Padres, Angels
17. Jorge Soler, DH/OF
We’ve reached the “mostly a DH” portion of the program. First up: Soler, who improved on his walk and K rates en route to a 36-homer season for the Marlins. That points to a more well-rounded hitter, one who’s still just 31, and while his bat his tended to come and go, some team is likely to make a multi-year investment given his power upside.
Suitors: Giants, Mariners, Angels
18. Harrison Bader, OF
Okay, so we’ve mostly reached the “mostly a DH” portion of the program. We briefly interrupt it to bring you Hader, whose value mostly comes from his sensational defense in center field. While he’s flashed upside at times at the plate — especially in the 2022 postseason with the Yankees — that upside has never stayed for very long, and he also hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season. That defensive value on the right side of 30 will always be in demand, however, especially for a team that can stomach a nine-hitter with an OBP that starts with a 2.
Suitors:
19. J.D. Martinez, DH
Okay, we’re back to our run of DHs now. This may seem a harsh ranking for Martinez, who caught fire in the second half and ended up with his best OPS (.893) since 2019. But his whiff and K rate spiked this season, which is a scary thing for a player who’s about to turn 36 — and whose value is entirely predicated on producing at the plate. Jose Abreu showed us the downside of being a year too late on that kind of profile, and don’t be surprised if the market prefers another of the market’s many DH options.
Suitors: Dodgers, Marlins, Mariners
20. Justin Turner, DH/INF
At this point, including “infielder” on Turner’s resume is probably being overly generous; gone are the days when he was a factor both defensively and on the bases. He can still get on base with the best of them, though, hitting .276/.345/.455 in his first year with the Red Sox, showing that his bat-to-ball skills aren’t slowing down just yet as he nears 40. Maybe 2024 will be the year the cliff finally arrives, but there’s nothing to suggest it.
Suitors: Dodgers, Marlins, Mariners
21. Joc Pederson, DH/OF
Need a righty-masher and have a hole at DH? Pederson is your man. The lefty continued to blister the ball in 2023, ranking in the top 8% of the league in both average and maximum exit velocity, with his batting average and SLG mostly dipping due to bad luck and a very unfriendly hitter’s park in San Francisco. You shouldn’t let him play the outfield or hit against lefties consistently, but those are relatively easy situations to avoid, and he’ll still accrue value over a long season.
Suitors: Brewers, Rangers, Mariners
22. Teoscar Hernandez, OF
Hernandez isn’t as bat-first as the guys just ahead of him, but he’s still a corner-only player who’s going to live or die by his production at the plate. Whether that production will come is anyone’s guess: The 31-year-old hits the hell out of the ball when he makes contact, but that contact isn’t nearly as consistent as it should be because he swings at absolutely everything. He needs a friendly BABIP and 25-30 homers to be a starting-caliber player, but he’d managed to pull that off in each of the three seasons prior to coming to the Mariners. Whether teams think he can do it again will determine his market, but everyone needs power.
Suitors: Marlins, Brewers, Angels
23. Tim Anderson, 2B/SS
Anderson has never been a plus with the glove at shortstop, but he made up for it by making tons of contact and running elite batting averages that kept his OPS above water. Just about everything in that last sentence cratered in 2023, as he struck out 122 times in 123 games and posted a woeful .245/.286/.296 slash line. Still, he’s only 30, and the middle-infield market is such that someone will probably take a chance on him — but if his power has really evaporated (just one homer this year), it’s hard to see paths to value here.
Suitors: White Sox, Marlins, Giants
24. Kenta Maeda, RHP
Once Maeda finally got healthy, he started looking like his old self again, spamming his slider and splitter and posting a 3.36 ERA over 17 appearances once he returned from the IL in late June. He’ll be 36 come April, so this will likely only be a one- or two-year arranagement, but teams that can afford to keep him in a swing-man role to preserve his arm will likely get above-average production.
Suitors: Rays, Mets, Padres
25. Jordan Hicks, RHP
Hicks has always had electric stuff, including one of the hardest fastballs in the sport. This past season, though, was the first in which his production finally matched it: The righty posted a 3.29 ERA with 81 Ks over 65.1 innings between the Cardinals and Blue Jays, pitching well for Toronto amid their postseason push. He doesn’t get as many whiffs as you’d expect given his velocity, but he suppresses quality contact and is a true back-end arm in a market without a ton of those lying around.
Suitors:
Honorable mentions
Gary Sanchez, C; Josh Bell, 1B; Michael Brantley, OF/DH; Tommy Pham, OF; Luis Severino, RHP
