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This is completely anecdotal, but it feels like weather hasn’t played as large a role in MLB DFS this season as it has in the past. Heck, this past weekend’s doubleheader between the Rays the Red Sox was only the ninth time teams have had to double-dip in 2023. We didn’t even get a snow game in early April! What’s going on in this world?
Anyway, the doppler looks pretty clear again tonight, save for some possible light rain in Colorado. With all that stated, let’s just focus on the baseball for Tuesday’s 12-game slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland Athletics, $10,900 - It feels like it’s been eons since a Pirates pitcher was carrying a price tag this high, but this is Keller’s third straight outing with a salary above $10K. He’s earned it, too. While the RHP has had some recent hiccups, his overall numbers are strong, with Keller coming into this evening with a 2.85 FIP across 74.2 innings. Since specifically April 27, Keller’s actually maintaining a pristine 1.95 FIP, thanks primarily to stunning marks in strikeout rate (34.8%) and K/BB ratio (10.5). With Oakland sitting dead-last in ISO (.069) and wRC+ (55) the past two weeks, I’d expect Keller to keep the good times rolling.
Value
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners, $7,800 - You have to think this is the last time you’ll be able to get Musgrove at this large a discount. While the RHP began the season injured, then struggled to find his initial footing coming off the IL, Musgrove has allowed just a single earned run in his last 12.1 innings. Also, though his 4.71 ERA still seems a little inflated, Musgrove’s 3.46 xERA is far more indicative of his true talent level. The Mariners own the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days (26.3%), and the team pairs that with an underwhelming 88 wRC+. This is a solid matchup to exploit.
INFIELD
Stud
Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, $5,200 - It’s taken a little while for the power to show up in Chicago, but it’s finally happening for Swanson. Since May 20, the shortstop is slashing .296/.356/.537 with a .241 ISO and a 142 wRC+. Basically, he’s hit three of his six home runs this season in his last 54 at-bats. Swanson is also in possession of a .385 expected wOBA versus LHPs. Enter Tyler Anderson ($5,600), who has pitched to a ghastly 5.83 SIERA through his 10 starts in 2023. Yikes.
Stud
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $4,800 - We’ve reached a point where you almost need at least a little exposure to the Rangers’ lineup on every single slate. That shouldn’t be an issue on Tuesday, as Jung’s in an obviously fantastic spot. One of the frontrunners for AL Rookie of the Year, Jung has been at his best against southpaws, registering a .358 ISO and a 208 wRC+ with an LHP on the mound. In fact, Jung’s .479 expected wOBA versus lefties is the ninth-highest mark among all players with 40 plate appearances within the split. Good luck, Matthew Liberatore ($6,400).
Value
Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, $3,600 - Bailey’s been a better right-handed hitter than left-handed hitter in 2023, but any discussion of handedness in this matchup is burying the lede. The truly important aspects to consider? Dinelson Lamet ($5,100) is starting for the Rockies and this game is in Coors Field. Lamet’s allowed 20 earned runs in 13.1 innings this season. LHBs are slugging .636 off him. If you’re looking to punt at catcher, the conversation starts with Bailey.
Value
Brandon Belt, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros, $2,500 - The matchup isn’t great — though Hunter Brown ($10,300) does have a 4.88 ERA in his last five starts — but if Belt continues to be priced this cheap against RHPs, you have to at least consider him. The veteran had an absolutely putrid month of April to begin 2023, yet he’s slashing .329/.469/.513 with a 179 wRC+ since May 1. Not bad for an asset hitting clean-up with a salary barely over the minimum.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs, $6,100 - With Justin Steele on the IL, Hayden Wesneski ($6,700) will draw the start against the Angels. Wesneski’s best pitch is his slider, so it makes sense that he’s been as good as he has versus RHBs in 2023. Left-handed bats are a different story. Wesneski’s faced 86 LHBs this season and he’s allowed them to slash .316/.357/.646. Meanwhile, Ohtani owns a 154 wRC+ when opposed by a right-handed pitcher. Do the rest of the math yourselves.
Stud
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, $5,400 - There’s really nothing bad to say about Carroll. The rookie has hit the ground running at the MLB level, producing a .273 ISO and a 150 wRC+ in his 168 plate appearances against RHPs in 2023. He’s also sixth in stolen bases (16). That’s nice, too. Carroll will get a chance to add to those impressive statistics on Tuesday in a matchup with Jake Irvin ($5,300). The RHP has had his issues with left-handed bats this season, surrendering a .405 wOBA within the split.
Value
LaMonte Wade, San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, $4,000 - It took a trip to Coors Field in finally get Wade some respect from the pricing algorithm. But guess what? He’s still too cheap for this matchup with the struggling Lamet. Wade owns a .201 ISO and a 162 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting .327 in his last 12 games. He might get five plate appearances tonight batting from the Giants’ leadoff spot. Wade remains a value.
Value
Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland Athletics, $3,000 - There’s a couple things to note here. First, Suwinski is probably better than you think he is. In fact, the outfielder owns a .954 OPS and a 154 wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this season. Second, James Kaprielian ($5,200) has been terrible in 2023, specifically when opposed by LHBs. Lefties have combined for a .461 wOBA off the 29-year-old. Woof.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.