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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 14

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

San Francisco 49ers v Philadelphia Eagles Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Week 14! The number of games is quickly whittling down to the amount of hair follicles on top of the dome of one Mr. Clean. This means fewer chances to collect the green. We must become lean, mean, DKFP machines in order to be Team #Winning like Charlie Sheen. Then we can shower our respective kings or queens with the finest of cuisines — if that’s your scene. Just make sure it’s obscene and not of the daily routine. Hopefully, I can assist in all of those endeavors by clearing away the smokescreens and allowing the light to shine the right path, so brightly that you need to lather on high-quality sunscreen. With the ultimate goal of creating a lineup that would impress even the ancient Byzantines. This content isn’t evergreen. It’s a one-shot piece and I am your Frankenstein. Hopefully, it hits like a drip of dopamine.

The only two teams on bye are ARI and WAS, which makes me sad because both have provided fantasy-friendly environments.

DraftKings Sportsbook has two games with a total of at least 45 points: SEA/SF (47) and BUF/KC (48.5). There are six games with a total at or below 40 - LAR/BAL (40), HOU/NYJ (33), CAR/NO (37.5), TB/ATL (39), JAX/CLE (30.5) and MIN/LVR (40). There is one double-digit favorite: SF -10.5 over SEA. Seven games are within a field goal: DET -3 over CHI, IND -1 over CIN, ATL -2.5 over TB, CLE -3 over JAX, MIN -3 over LVR, KC -2.5 over BUF and LAC -2.5 over DEN. There are four home dogs - NYJ, CHI, CIN and LVR.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, $8,300 — This spot doesn’t consist of all candy canes and unicorns for Allen. The Bills have to travel into a hostile Arrowhead stadium and the Chiefs defense has played well this season. In particular, the unit blitzes at the sixth-highest rate and has the second-best pressure rate. They have allowed the 27th-most passing yards.

That said, on a week filled with low totals and weather concerns, this game has neither, as there is no rain forecast and the total of 48.5 is the highest on the slate. In addition, while the Chiefs offense hasn’t been particularly explosive this season, it still has Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) and he can make this a back-and-forth affair.

While Allen has three games with fewer than 20 DKFP this season, he’s gone for over 30 four times, which includes the 43.66 he put up last week. Because of his ability to dominate both through the air and on the ground, he has a ceiling that is matched by few, if any, on this slate.

Other Options – Patrick Mahomes ($7,900), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Brock Purdy ($6,500)

Value

Josh Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders, $5,900 — There will be no weather concerns in this one, as it’s indoors across from The Strip.

Dobbs was abysmal two weeks ago, throwing four interceptions. Bad games happen. Prior to that, he rolled off 10 games with double-digit DKFP, five of those over 20, despite changing teams four games ago. The Vikings are coming off their bye, so Dobbs has had time to ruminate and get over last game. He will also get Justin Jefferson ($8,500) for this one.

The Raiders are also coming off their bye, so it’s possible that they have made some gameplan adjustments. That said, I don’t see them changing too much from their conservative ways. The unit blitzes at the fourth-lowest rate and is dead-last in pressure rate.

While Dobbs has been more than proficient in the passing game, it’s the rushing prowess that is most alluring. In 12 games this season, he has rushed 72 times for 400 yards with six touchdowns. Only Lamar Jackson ($7,700) and Jalen Hurts have more rushing yards while Hurts and Josh Allen are the only quarterbacks who have scored more rushing touchdowns.

Other Options – Russell Wilson ($5,800), Geno Smith ($5,700), Baker Mayfield ($5,300)


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Running Back

Stud

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks, $9,200 — McCaffrey is the Rolex of the fantasy football landscape. Yes, he is expensive, but he’s going to deliver at the correct time on a consistent basis and the resell value holds up in any economic environment.

Well, the current environment in San Francisco is as robust as the Dot-Com Bubble back in the late 1990s. The offensive line and skill players are all healthy and the quarterback is playing great. The 49ers are second in rushing touchdowns and fourth in receiving touchdowns. They are second in 20+ yard plays, first in first-down rate and first in passer rating. Outside of a three-game stretch during Weeks 6-8, the 49ers offense has scored at least 30 points in all but one contest.

McCaffrey is third on the team in total targets and dominates the red zone looks. He has 67 on the season. Deebo Samuel is second with 17. McCaffrey has scored double-digit DKFP in every game this season with only two of those below 20. He’s gone for over 30 twice, which includes a high of 51.7!

Other Options – Alvin Kamara ($8,200), Kyren Williams ($7,300), Rachaad White ($6,800), Isiah Pacheco ($6,700), Joe Mixon ($6,100)

Value

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals, $5,900 – Moss was viewed as a free square last week due to the low price and role. As a result, he was mega chalk, rostered in over 50% of most contests. He did carry 19 the ball times and receive three targets, but he only rushed for 51 yards and caught two passes, which translated to 7.7 DKFP. The matchup was a brutal one, as the Titans have been one of the best teams against the run.

Everything flips for this week.

Moss has been priced up and I think many will eschew him due to recency bias and the cost. I think that’s a mistake because this is a really good matchup for him. The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and touchdowns this season. The 4.8 yards per attempt is the second-most generous.

Indy is a 1-point road favorite.

Other Options – Zach Charbonnet ($5,400)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks, $6,900 — I want pieces of the 49ers offense this week. Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ($6,800) are priced next to each other and both have almost identical projections. Due to recency bias, Deebo will likely garner much higher ownership, so I will go with Aiyuk in that scenario. While Aiyuk doesn’t get the carries that Deebo receives, he leads the team in receptions and had seven last week, tops on the team. He also received a red zone target.

Seattle plays zone defense at the second-highest rate (86.1%) in the league. As referenced last week, Deebo destroys zone defense and has garnered the highest target rate on the team against that defense this season at 24%. Aiyuk hasn’t been too shabby himself, though. The target rate has been 20% but he’s racked up 561 yards on 30 receptions compared to 422 yards on 31 receptions for Deebo. Aiyuk has 98.1 PPR points against zone vs. 73.2 for Deebo. Stats courtesy of PFF.

Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($8,800), Justin Jefferson ($8,500), Mike Evans ($7,700), DK Metcalf ($6,700)

Value

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,600 – It’s always gross placing hard-earned American dollars behind Desmond Ridder ($5,000), yet here we are. The Falcons want to run left, run right, run up and run down. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay boasts one of the best run defenses in the league and has been vulnerable through the air. That is the obvious path of least resistance. Atlanta may remain stubborn and bang their collective heads against the brick wall, but they will have to chuck it up from time to time.

London leads the team in targets with 72. He’s also received 10 red zone targets. These teams met six weeks ago and London caught six of seven targets for 54 yards. He received three red zone targets in that one. London has scored double-digit DKFP seven times this season with a high of 24.5.

Cue up the Lloyd Christmas.

Other Options - Gabe Davis ($5,800), Jakobi Meyers ($5,700), Tyler Lockett ($5,600), Rashee Rice ($5,400), Elijah Moore ($4,500), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100), Khalil Shakir ($3,900)


Tight End

Stud

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers, $5,400 – Hill isn’t your traditional tight end, as he’s received only 33 targets on the season. It’s the rushing and red zone prowess that makes him valuable. On the season, he’s scored double-digit DKFP in five contests with two of those over 20. Last week, he rushed 13 times for 59 yards and a touchdown while receiving two targets and catching both for 15 yards. He had received at least nine carries in three other contests and rushed for 75, 63 and 52 yards. Hill has four rushing touchdowns on the season, one receiving and has thrown for another.

The range of outcomes is wide and Hill’s floor is extremely low. If you can handle that volatility, Hill could be very enticing since the ownership should be low and he faces a Panthers team that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the season.

Other Options – Sam LaPorta ($6,100), George Kittle ($5,900)

Value

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets vs. Houston Texans, $3,000 Zach Wilson ($4,700) is getting the starting nod this week, which is probably a good thing for Conklin. Over the last two weeks, he’s racked up 35 and 33 yards. The encouraging thing, though, was that he still received nine and five targets. With Wilson, Conklin had his best games, scoring double-digit DKFP in four games. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends on average this season.

Other Options – Cole Kmet ($4,300), Kyle Pitts ($3,700), Isaiah Likely ($3,500), Gerald Everett ($3,400)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

49ers D/ST vs. Seattle Seahawks, $3,700 – The 49ers offense will likely put up a ton of points in this one, forcing Seattle to be aggressive and tilt toward the aerial attack. That should provide more opportunities for sacks and turnovers. The 49ers have racked up 36 sacks, five fumble recoveries and 15 interceptions this season. These teams met two weeks ago and the unit racked up six sacks and one interception. They have scored double-digit DKFP four times with a high of 20.

Other Options – Texans D/ST ($4,000), Saints D/ST ($3,900), Lions D/ST ($3,400)

Value

Browns D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,000 – The Browns have scored -1 and 3 DKFP over the last two weeks, but they faced the Rams and the Broncos, two teams with veteran quarterbacks. This week, they will likely face C.J. Beathard ($4,900), who has been in the league for six seasons and has a career 59.5% completion percentage in 30 games with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He has a sack rate of 8.6%. For perspective, that would place him 10th-highest this season.

The Browns have racked up 34 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, nine interceptions and two touchdowns. They have scored double-digit DKFP in four games with a high of 23.

Other Options – Falcons D/ST ($2,900)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.