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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 11

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

NFL: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Week 11. There is no time for reflection. It’s time to sit up straight at attention and start making all the connections to make a lineup full of flames. That would be a sight of perfection. Embrace your obsession of this game we love so much and let’s take your game to a new dimension. Connecting all the dots and figuring out the puzzle would be heaven. Hopefully I can steer you in the right direction.

ATL, IND, NE and NO are all on bye. CIN/BAL play on Thursday night. MIN/DEN is the Sunday night game. PHI/KC will be on Monday night. That leaves us with an 11-game slate.

DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with a total of at least 45 points: LV/MIA (46.5), CHI/DET (47.5), ARI/HOU (47.5) and SEA/LAR (46). There are four games with a total at or below 40 - PIT/CLE (33.5), NYG/WAS (37), TEN/JAX (40) and NYJ/BUF (40). There are three double-digit favorites - DAL -10.5 over CAR, MIA -12 over LVR and SF - 12 over TB. Three games are within a field goal: PIT -2 over CLE, LAC -3 over GB and SEA -1 over LAR. There are four home dogs - CLE, CAR, GB and LAR.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, $6,100 — I really like Tua this week and think he throws three or four touchdowns in a potential beatdown of the Raiders. We have seen what the Dolphins do to inferior opponents this season. That said, I’m going with Murray for a multitude of reasons. First, I think the Dolphins rushing attack is going to get busy as well, which caps some of the ceiling for Tua. Second, in the massive blowout games for Miami, Tua went for 31.36 and 32.14 DKFP. Those are great scores, no doubt, but I think Murray can get to the mid-to-high 20s at a $1,600 savings. Third, I like the environment for this ARI/HOU game. The total is a healthy 47.5, both teams are top 7 in seconds per play and the Texans should score plenty of points against the Cardinals defense. Finally, Murray is a threat on the ground. He rushed six times for 33 yards and a touchdown last week. Last season, before succumbing to injury, he rushed at least seven times in six of eight games, with two of those in the double digits.

Other Options – Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), CJ Stroud ($7,000), Jared Goff ($6,600)


Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,800 — Purdy caught some flack a few weeks ago, as he threw five interceptions in three games. Many think he’s a system quarterback, but who isn’t a system quarterback!!! I’ve been very impressed with Purdy, as he diagnoses defenses well, throws with great anticipation, can make plays with his legs, has good accuracy and doesn’t see ghosts when getting blitzed. Is he perfect? No, but he really does make some unbelievable throws. His fantasy ceiling is capped because of the slow, methodical nature of the 49ers offense and focus on the run. That said, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in five games this season and the amount of playmakers who can take one to the house on any given play make his job easier. The matchup is a good one, as the Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most passing yards, sixth-most yards after the catch and blitz at the third-highest rate while only being 18th in pressure rate.

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Running Back


De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $6,600 — Achane missed the last five games due to injury, but he’s set to return this week, and the setup should be an enticing one. The Raiders allow the fourth-highest yards per attempt and fifth-most touchdowns on the ground. Achane is explosive and can score on any given play. In the three games prior to going down with an injury, Achane rushed 11, eight and 18 times for 151, 101 and 203 yards, respectively. He also received a total of 10 targets and scored twice through the air. All of that translated to 25.5, 30 and 54.3 DKFP.

Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), Austin Ekeler ($8,600), Breece Hall ($6,400), Rachaad White ($6,000)


Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, $4,600 – You have been warned that Tony Pollard ($6,600) is now probably going for three touchdowns. The Cowboys are favored by 10.5 points on the road over the Panthers. Carolina has given up the ninth-most rushing yards, 10th-highest yards per carry and the second-most rushing touchdowns. Pollard gets around 70% of the snaps, but he hasn’t sniffed 20 carries since Week 3. Last week, Pollard rushed 15 times compared to 12 for Dowdle. While Pollard received four red zone carries, Dowdle got two. I’ll take the $2,000 discount here for what could be similar production. Now, go re-read the first sentence of this blurb.

Other Options – Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800), James Conner ($5,700), Devin Singletary ($5,300) if Foreman is out

Wide Receiver


Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $9,300 — Not much analysis is needed here. Hill has received fewer than nine targets just once this season. He’s received double-digit targets six times. He’s one of the fastest players in the NFL and can score on any play. It also helps that Mike McDaniel schemes one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The floor/ceiling combo of Hill is matched by few. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in every game this season, with four over 30 and a high of 47.5. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most yards after catch and are 28th in pressure rate.

Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800), Cooper Kupp ($8,100), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Puka Nacua ($7,100), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Christian Kirk ($6,000)


Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, $3,400 – As mentioned in the Murray section above, I like this game environment a lot, and if I like Murray to have a good game, some of his receivers should benefit as well. Wilson played in 89% of the snaps last week and was second in targets with six. The leader was Rondale Moore ($3,300), but his looks are usually of the low-aDOT variety. Wilson is 6-foot-1 and 216 pounds with a 10.12 catch radius. He received the lone red zone look last week.

Other Options - Tank Dell ($5,900), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Noah Brown ($4,800), Jalen Guyton ($3,300), Rondale Moore ($3,300)

Tight End


Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears, $5,800 – The Bears actually have a good run defense, limiting opposing rushing attacks to a league-best 3.2 yards per carry, so the path of least resistance is via the air. St. Brown will be the alpha but LaPorta is second on the team in targets for the season. The matchup is a good one, as the Bears have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position and second-most touchdowns.

Other Options – George Kittle ($6,400), Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)


Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, $4,400 Well, I guess I’m stacking the Cardinals, huh? With Murray back in the mix last week, McBride received nine targets, catching eight for 131 yards. That was good for 24.1 DKFP. Last season, Murray peppered Zach Ertz with targets before succumbing to injury. The trend is our friend here. The Texans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position.

Other Options – Cole Kmet ($4,100), Logan Thomas ($3,700), Luke Musgrave ($3,600)

Defense/Special Teams


Cowboys D/ST at Carolina Panthers, $4,100 – Bryce Young ($5,100) has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 29 times this season, the fifth-most in the league. The Cowboys are heavy road favorites and should have plenty of opportunities to rack up sacks and interceptions, as Carolina will likely be chasing points in this one. The Cowboys D/ST has racked up 10 interceptions, four fumbles, 26 sacks, a safety and five touchdowns. They have four double-digit DKFP games, with a high of 37.

Other Options – Lions D/ST ($3,800), Steelers D/ST ($3,500)


Dolphins D/ST vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $3,200 – The Dolphins will likely score a boatload of points this week, forcing the Raiders out of any shell they thought of hiding in. They will also be traveling east to play in often hot and muggy Miami. Aidan O’Connell ($4,900) has played in four games this season, throwing three interceptions and taking 10 sacks. The Dolphins have the third-highest pressure rate and the ninth-most sacks. There should be plenty of chances to rack up fantasy goodies for the unit.

Other Options – Giants D/ST ($3,000), Jets D/ST ($2,600)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.