clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks Today: NFL Week 10 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Los Angeles Chargers v New York Jets Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.

No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.

OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.

Let’s dive into Week 10.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Game Stack: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Will Levis ($5,300) — DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000) — Chig Okonkwo ($3,000) — Chris Godwin ($6,700)

This game only has a total of 38.5 points as of writing but there is a lot of potential for the Titans’ passing game to replicate some of the magic that the Texans brought to DFS players last week.

We know Todd Bowles will sell out to stop the run. Tampa Bay ranks top 10 in yards per rush allowed but second last in yards per pass attempt allowed (9.3) over its last three games. Levis and DeAndre Hopkins (11 targets in Week 9) are in a great spot to benefit as a result. Tampa Bay has allowed the third most yards to opposing WRs and both of its starting corners, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, are questionable and coming off of terrible games. Hopkins accounted for 53% of Levis’ yardage back in Week 8 so if Levis can manage a good game, it’s almost a certainty that Hopkins will be putting up big numbers as well.

One final note, while Levis struggled to make bigger plays against Pittsburgh’s high-pressure defense, Tampa Bay is below average in both sacks and pressure rate, making this matchup far more similar to the one he had with Atlanta in Week 8. As for who else to target with Levis to complete the game stack? Chig Okonwo does look like a potential breakout candidate this week. Tampa Bay has allowed TDs to TEs in back-to-back games and Okonwo’s 10 targets over the last two weeks ranks second among all Titans' WRs and TEs. Treylon Burks being ruled out could also mean a bump in volume.

From the Tampa Bay side, the Titans’ stifling rush defense (fewest receptions allowed to opposing RBs, too) makes this a decent spot to chase some upside with WR Chris Godwin. Godwin has eclipsed 80 yards just once this season but he leads the Buccaneers in targets and faces a Titans’ secondary that just allowed Diontae Johnson to go for seven receptions and 90 yards and score his first TD in more than two seasons. Godwin is in a pretty obvious bounce-back spot after a down week against Houston and makes for a good contrarian option to fill out this high-upside game stack.

Quarterback: Geno Smith ($5,800), Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders

Geno Smith has been rough lately — having thrown six interceptions over his last six games. But with the Commanders on tap, his now sub-6k price tag makes him a great bounce-back candidate for Week 10.

Last week, the Commanders’ defense held up well against the Patriots (who are relying on sixth-round rookies at WR). Washington has allowed the second-most TDs to opposing WRs and I don’t see any reason why that trend won’t continue here. Smith still ranks 12th in yards per pass attempt so he’s pushing the ball downfield and this should be a spot where he can land multiple long scores to boost his fantasy totals. Whichever way you slice it, he’s a good buy-low candidate in a great matchup.

Running Back

Top End: Tony Pollard ($7,300), Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

It’s been rough lately for Tony Pollard. Despite having the Cowboys backfield to himself (70% snap rate, 57% carry rate), he hasn’t managed to top 55 yards rushing in five straight games. To make matters even worse for fantasy owners, Pollard hasn’t found the endzone since Week 1, an almost impossible stat to fathom after he crushed out 12 TDs last year while in a timeshare with Ezekiel Elliott.

There is a great chance Pollard will bounce back in Week 10. The Cowboys are -17.5 favorites against the Giants and they also have the largest implied team total on the slate at 28.5. Teams against New York are averaging over 27 rush attempts per game and we just saw Las Vegas give the ball to Josh Jacobs 26 times last week. Despite the lack of explosive plays, Pollard is in a good spot to eat strictly from volume this week and is a great pay-up option in any format.

Low End: Najee Harris ($4,900), Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers

Yes, I am choosing to go with the less talented Steelers running back this week — despite Jaylen Warren ($5,000) being nearly the same price — but hear me out. The Packers are an average rush defense and while it’s nice to think that this will be the week the Steelers decide to bench Harris, that is unlikely to happen. The beleaguered starter has received at least d50% of the carries in each of his last five games and continues to be the Steelers’ preferred option on short down plays and red zone carries, totaling 83% of the short down carries last week.

Harris has even added a little PPR work lately (just to really stick it to Warren owners) as he’s now caught 10 passes over his last three games. With Green Bay having allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, there is a good chance Harris not only produces a few extra yards than usual but also finds the end zone in Week 10, making his sub-$5K salary one to target in big field GPPs.

Wide Receiver

Top End: Keenan Allen ($8,800), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Detroit Lions

The game between the Lions and the Chargers has a lot of fantasy appeal with two weaker secondaries going up against each other. The Chargers also have a lot of injury issues at WR, making this a spot for Keenan Allen to potentially post a ceiling type of game. Allen enters this week off a few low-yardage performances but his usage isn't going anywhere. He’s got a 30% team target share and has also seen a 39% air yards share this season.

Allen hasn’t scored in a few weeks but that could change this week. The Lions have two rookie corners starting for them and while they have been decent thus far, they have still allowed some monster games to opposing WR1s, including an 11-107-1 game to Adam Thielen in Week 5. Allen’s a good core target this week to build around, especially with a lot of other big names hurting at WR in Week 10.

Top Value: Jahan Dotson ($5,000), Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks

It took a few games but Jahan Dotson has finally started to get things going. He’s seen 26 targets over the last three weeks and produced at least 65 yards and a TD in two straight games. Despite having solid corners, Seattle has still been a good matchup for WRs allowing the 9th most fantasy points and receptions against opposing WRs.

The game flow and matchup here suggest it’s still not too late to buy in on Dotson. Washington should be behind in this matchup at some point, given its weaker defense (and the +6.5 game spread), so he’ll have a great chance to see seven plus targets once again. At just $5K, his price hasn’t moved at all over the last week — making him one of the best available upside plays in this range for Week 10.

Tight End: Sam LaPorta ($5,700), Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers and Lions game has a total of 48.5 and the Lions have a specific implied team total of 25.75, making their offense one we need to target for DFS this week. While the matchup is good for all their pass catchers, it’s TE Sam LaPorta who might be in the best spot. Los Angeles has struggled in coverage all season in the middle of the field and enters this game having allowed the second-most yards against to opposing TEs, despite having already having their bye week.

While they’ve only allowed two TDs to tight ends this season, they let the Jets’ tight ends run wild last week. Ty Conklin caught a season-high six catches and C.J. Uzomah was also left wide open for a TD, which would have been a score (if he could catch). LaPorta won’t drop those kinds of opportunities and even at $5.7K, makes for a decent value given his recent average of 9.33 targets over his last three games.

Defense/Special Teams: Arizona Cardinals ($2,400) vs Atlanta Falcons

The Cardinals are getting a boost this week with QB Kyler Murray ($5,900) back in the lineup and it’s a development that should have good implications for their DST as well. Arizona only managed about 100 yards of total offense last week, meaning its defense was on the field for most of the game. This week, getting Murray and James Conner back should give a much-needed offensive boost which in turn could help the defense.

The Cardinals may not have many elite players on this side of the ball but they have managed to land 25 sacks on the year. If they can gain a few drives with a more advantageous field position, it will also give them more opportunities to go after Taylor Heinicke ($5,100), who threw an interception in his first start with Atlanta last week. The Falcons have been turnover machines on offense — fifth-most turnovers in the league — and with the Cardinals potentially showing a lot of improvement on offense, their defense should be in a good position to take advantage and pay off this low salary for Week 10.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]

The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.