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Fantasy Football Picks: Titans vs. Packers DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Titans and the Packers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

I could sit here and wax poetic about the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers, but instead, I want to use this space to address a thought I’ve had since last Sunday: Scott Hanson looks like Ryan Tannehill ($9,600), right? I can’t unsee it. Maybe this has been covered before on NFL RedZone — I don’t know for sure — however, a quick Twitter search at least assures me of two things. One, I’m not alone. Two, Hanson has been alerted to this likeness.

Anyway, I guess you’re not here for conspiracies about long lost twins. You’re here for Showdown analysis. Let’s dive in.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TEN vs GB)


Captain’s Picks

Derrick Henry ($17,400 CP) - There’s snow on the ground. There’s a chill in the air. It’s the time of year known as “cuffing season” to some, though I think the opposite is true if we’re talking RB handcuffs and Derrick Henry. The Alabama product has always thrived in the later stages of the schedule and, if the last few weeks are any indication, Henry is just revving up. Honestly, you can even set the parameters all the way back to Week 3. Within that span, despite playing only seven games, Henry leads all running backs in attempts (168), rushing yards (816), 100-yard rushing performances (5), rushing touchdowns (8) and DKFP earned per snap (0.64). Any way you spin it, he’s been an absolute monster. I don’t think the good times are coming to an end on Thursday, either. Green Bay has been atrocious against the run, allowing 140.6 opponent rushing yards per contest — the seventh-most in the NFL. By DVOA, Packers D/ST ($3,800) ranks 30th at defending the running game. Yikes.

Aaron Rodgers ($15,600 CP) - This season has been underwhelming for Rodgers, yet on the heels of his best showing of 2022, I’m confident the reigning MVP can do some damage on Thursday. In fact, I think he’ll have to if the Packers have any chance at winning. Put simply, there are funnel defenses and then there’s Tennessee. You do not want to run the football against Tennessee. Not only do the Titans sit No. 1 versus the rush according to DVOA, they’re also inducing by far the lowest opponent rushing rate in the league at just 33.0%. As you might expect, that’s translated into surrendering the fewest rushing touchdowns per contest of any team (0.2). It’s very likely the Green Bay will still attempt to control the clock with Aaron Jones ($11,200), but that’s not yet proven to be an effective strategy in this matchup. Rodgers will eventually have to make something happen with his arm, squaring off with a secondary that’s conceding the fourth-most DKFP on a weekly basis to QBs.

FLEX Plays

Editor’s Note: Packers WR Randall Cobb (ankle) has been activated off injured reserve.

Christian Watson ($7,400) - As much as I’d like to avoid the chalk that will surely come with rostering Watson, he’s a difficult asset to ignore, particularly if you’re Captaining Rodgers. With Randall Cobb (ankle) and Romeo Doubs (ankle) unavailable in Week 10, Watson was the star of the show, logging an 84.4% snap share to go along with a 42% target rate and 74% of the Packers’ total air yards. As you might imagine, that incredible usage turned into 107 receiving yards, three touchdowns and 35.7 DKFP. Obviously, a 75% touchdown rate is unsustainable — I’d assume a 42% target share is, too — but with Rodgers sure to throw more than 20 times against the Titans, the regression of Watson’s insane efficiency should be softened by an increase in raw reception volume. Allen Lazard ($8,600) is the easy pivot, yet with Sammy Watkins ($4,800) relegated to a mere 21 snaps versus the Cowboys, there are only two WRs you can trust on Green Bay’s roster.

Treylon Burks ($5,200) - Selling anyone on the viability of a Titans’ wideout is a tough ask. The unit as a whole as been arguably the worst in football, though it was certainly not helped by Burks’ multi-week absence. Well, the 18th overall pick was back in action last Sunday, logging a 56.5% snap share and garnering six targets — numbers I would expect to grow the farther and farther we get from the rookie’s injury. Really, this just comes down to price. Due to missing so much time, Burks’ price tag has fallen from the mid $6K range where it sat in September. At $5.2K, with his talent and upside, he can swing the slate with one big play.


Ryan Tannehill ($9,600) - Over Tannehill’s past 17 starts (including the playoffs), he’s failed to score at least 20.0 DKFP 16 times. That’s just kind of who Tannehill is in this system, especially now that he’s lacking a weapon like A.J. Brown at his side. The Titans want to run the ball and I really don’t think this contest will fall into a script where Tennessee feels like it needs to force the aerial attack. Meanwhile, the Packers have been exceedingly good at limiting the fantasy production of opposing quarterbacks this season, giving up the fourth-fewest DKFP per game to the position. Famous doppelgänger or not, this isn’t a slate where paying up for Tannehill is a necessity.


I’m having a hard time with this line. While there was movement, the Packers opened up last week’s contest against the Cowboys as five-point home underdogs. Now, after a single improbable comeback victory, they’re three-point favorites over the Titans? Are we saying Dallas is a full touchdown better than Tennessee? Because I’m not buying it. The Titans are 7-2 ATS and 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Crucially, they also roster the best running back in the NFL in a matchup with a Green Bay team that has been unable to stop anyone on the ground. I’ll gladly take the points.

Final Score: Tennessee 24, Green Bay 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TEN vs GB)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.