Not to make too big a deal about a Week 5 contest, but this might be a hinge game for the Las Vegas Raiders’ season. With a win? Suddenly you’re just a game back of the division lead heading into your bye and a soft patch of your schedule. With a loss? You’re sitting at 1-4 with two full weeks to ponder where it all went wrong. So, yeah. This is a pretty massive matchup between the Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (LV vs KC)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($18,000 CP) - The Chiefs’ offense is far less predictable in 2022 than it has been in years prior. Not to say that peppering Tyreek Hill with targets is a bad strategy when available, yet with the speedy wideout now in South Beach, Kansas City has needed a more diverse approach to its target shares. To wit, through four games, Mahomes has only targeted his WR corps on 51.4% of his throws — the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. So how does that relate to you needing to drop $18K on your Captain on Monday night? Well, if we don’t know where Mahomes’ passes are going, you have to rely on the constant: Mahomes. The All-Pro is averaging 0.59 DKFP per drop back this season — the second-most of any quarterback with with fewer than 30 rushing attempts — and he entered Week 5 tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11). He’s going to get his, as will Travis Kelce ($10,800), but its a crapshoot aside from that duo.
Davante Adams ($17,100 CP) - The only reason to hesitate with Adams on Monday is the return of Hunter Renfrow ($5,800). However, while Adams’ 43% target share against the Broncos may not be sustainable, it is worth noting it isn’t even his season-high. The 29-year-old actually posted a 45% target share back in Week 1, with Renfrow active and running a route on 87% of Derek Carr’s ($10,200) attempts. At the end of the day, Adams is simply going to see an almost unmatched level of volume. Also, if this contest goes anything like most Chiefs’ games have in 2022, there should be enough targets to go around for the Raiders’ pass catchers. Thanks to some pretty lopsided scripts, Kansas City’s opponents are dropping back to throw on an NFL-high 70.2% of offensive plays. That possibility, plus Adams’ league-best 13 red zone targets, are more than enough to justify spending up on the veteran WR.
FLEX Plays
Josh Jacobs ($8,800) - This isn’t normally a game where I’d recommend using Jacobs, but if his Week 4 usage persists, dare I say he might be script proof. More important than the 37.5 DKFP Jacobs ended that victory with were the underlying numbers. The running back was a true “bell cow” versus Denver, logging a season-high 89.3% snap share and finishing the contest with 33 touches. That last point is key. Jacobs was on the field for third downs. He’s caught 10 passes in Las Vegas’ past two games, which assures he’ll maintain a role and fantasy value even if the Raiders find themselves trailing by multiple scores. Chiefs D/ST ($4,200) has been a stout matchup for opposing RBs all season — they rank fifth by DVOA against the rush — yet that doesn’t matter nearly as much when volume isn’t a concern.
Skyy Moore ($2,400) - On a slate this top-heavy, you’re going to have to look to save somewhere. That could mean a complete punt like Noah Gray ($600) or Keelan Cole ($200), yet my eye’s on Moore, who is a nice blend of ceiling and affordability. Simply put, the rookie is a big play waiting to happen. Moore’s only made three receptions so far this season, but they’ve gone for an average of 20.3 yards, while the second-round pick’s aDOT of 15.6 yards is a clear indication of Moore’s current role. Coming off a season-high in snaps last weekend against Tampa Bay, Moore’s arrow appears to be pointing up.
Fades
Darren Waller ($7,200) - Waller’s in an interesting spot. In a redraft setting, he’s still an elite option at a weak position. But in DFS? It’s not all that appealing a situation. Waller’s target share has hovered around a modest 15% the past two weeks, and with Renfrow now back in the picture, it’s hard to see a path to real volume. Plus, as referenced above, Waller’s now obviously No. 2 in the red zone hierarchy, with Adams leading the world in targets inside the 20 yard-line. A rising tide does lift all boats, so a scenario where a trailing Carr is asked to pass 45-plus times could aid Waller. Yet at the end of the day, this is a hefty price tag for an asset with a limited range of slate-changing outcomes.
THE OUTCOME
The Raiders have looked shaky on both sides of the ball in 2022, while the Chiefs lead the NFL in EPA per play. Kansas City hasn’t been flawless by any means — I still don’t know how it lost that game against the Colts — but they’ve clearly been the superior team. Add in that Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Arrowhead, and I’ve got a pretty easy lean on Monday.
Final Score: Kansas City 31, Las Vegas 21
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (LV vs KC)
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