Grading Jordan Hicks trade for Blue Jays, Cardinals

You can’t accuse the Toronto Blue Jays of wasting any time. Just 24 hours after All-Star closer Jordan Romano was placed on the IL with back inflammation, GM Ross Atkins bolstered the team’s bullpen depth by swinging a deal for hard-throwing St. Louis Cardinals righty Jordan Hicks. A pair of Double-A righties, Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, are headed back to St. Louis.

With the Cardinals pulling the cord on a dismal 2023 season, and extension talks with the free-agent-to-be Hicks breaking down in recent days, the writing seemed to be on the wall here. Other contenders like the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers had been linked to Hicks as the deadline drew closer, but instead it’s Toronto who lands him, in a move that will have fascinating implications for the AL pennant race. Who came out ahead here? What does this deal mean for each team? Let’s break it all down.

Jordan Hicks trade grades

Blue Jays: B-

You can certainly understand where Atkins was coming from. Toronto ranks in the top-five in the Majors in bullpen ERA, but Romano going down was a big blow, and none of the Jays’ in-house replacements had experience in the ninth inning. Hicks very much does, having served as the Cardinals’ closer ever since Ryan Helsley went down with an elbow injury back in June. The righty has truly electric stuff — his fastball averages nearly 101 mph — and the elite strikeout numbers to prove it, with 59 Ks in 41.2 innings of work to go with a 3.67 ERA. With Aroldis Chapman, Joe Kelly, Kendall Graveman already off the market — and the resurgent Padres unlikely to part with Josh Hader — Hicks was almost certainly the best relief arm still available.

And yet, if you talk to a Cardinals fan, they’ll probably express some trepidation about the Jordan Hicks experience. For as high-octane as his right arm is, he’s also battled command problems throughout his career. Those problems have persisted in 2023: Hicks has issued 24 walks in those 41.2 frames, and he’s allowed multiple baserunners in each of his last five appearances. Every one of his outings feels like walking a tightrope, and while his explosive fastball and wipeout slider can get him out of any jam, it’s not exactly the most reliable profile as we head toward October. And that’s not even mentioning Hicks’ checkered injury history: The righty missed most of 2019-2021 with arm problems, including Tommy John surgery, and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to hold up for three more months.

Again, Hicks was the best remaining high-leverage option, and he has as much upside as any reliever likely to move this deadline season. With Romano out for the foreseeable future and every win critically important, you can certainly understand why Atkins made this move. But while the prospect haul headed to St. Louis isn’t massive, it represents an opportunity cost, and trusting Hicks down the stretch feels like a very risky proposition.

Cardinals: B

Neither of the two prospects headed to the Cardinals come with a ton of upside, but both profile as the sort of back-end starter that could be useful in St. Louis’ rotation starting as soon as 2024.

The team’s No. 7 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Robberse is the headliner here, a 21-year-old who first signed with the Jays out of the Honkbal Hoofdklasse — the top baseball league in the Netherlands and a truly incredible phrase — as an international free agent back in 2019. The righty put himself on prospect radars last season, posting a 3.23 ERA in 111.1 innings across High-A and Double-A. Toronto sent him back to Double-A in 2023, where he currently owns a 4.06 ERA with 86 strikeouts in 88.2 innings across 18 starts.

He doesn’t have the most electric stuff, largely sitting in the low 90s with his fastball, but he throws tons of strikes and has a curveball and slider that both project to be at least average. None of his offerings miss a ton of bats, but he induces plenty of ground balls and has managed to keep Minor League hitters off-balance well enough so far. It’s not the flashiest profile, but it’s one the Cardinals have had success with before — in many ways he’s a lot like a young Miles Mikolas.

Robberse’s rotation-mate at Double-A New Hampshire this year, Kloffenstein has been on quite the journey since Toronto popped him in the third round of the 2018 MLB Draft. The righty is still just 22, though, and his arrow is firmly pointed up right now with a 3.24 ERA and 105 Ks in 89 innings across 17 starts. Baseball America tabbed him as the team’s No. 16 prospect in its midseason update, noting his six-pitch arsenal and a velocity uptick this year. Like Robberse, the profile rests on pitchability and polish rather than swing-and-miss stuff, but for a team that wants to raise the floor of its rotation after the disaster that was this 2023 season, both of these guys should be able to help as soon as 2024.