Get out your favorite Justin Timberlake meme: It’s May, people. However, before we embark on a new month, let’s take a moment to reflect on March/April. We had a pretty good run on article plays to start the MLB regular season, going 11-7 (+3.4u) across the first five weeks.
Can we keep the momentum going as the calendar turns? Let’s dive into Wednesday’s betting slate.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
SGP: Dodgers ML + Yamamoto 5+ Strikeouts (+138)
Let’s kick things off with out first same game parlay of the season. While you could easily just bet Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s strikeout prop all by its lonesome, I like adding in the Dodgers to pick up a victory as a slight road favorite. The reasoning for both legs is pretty simple: Yamamoto is starting to look like the stud we were all promised he would be. If you eliminate his first career MLB outing — an ugly, truncated start in Korea that was essentially extended Spring Training — Yamamoto has pitched to a 2.00 ERA and a 2.57 FIP across 27.0 innings. The RHP also sports a massive 32.7% strikeout rate in that stretch, a figure he pairs with a microscopic 4.7% walk rate. In Yamamoto’s last five starts, he’s struck out five opponents on all five occasions and, three times, he hasn’t surrendered a single earned run. That’s not too shabby.
How do the Diamondbacks slot into all of this? Well, no team has been as drastically effected by handedness splits as Arizona through the first month of the season. To wit, the Diamondbacks lead baseball in both wOBA (.375) and wRC+ (141) against LHPs in 2024. Versus RHPs, Arizona sits 25th in wOBA (.293) and ISO (.130). Yamamoto has the potential to be one of the sport’s best right-handed starters. By that logic, the Diamondbacks should struggle to score this evening.
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San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox ML (-120)
Nothing too complex with this wager. This is a classic example of a lopsided pitching matchup. In one corner, we have Kutter Crawford, who appears to be in the midst of a breakout campaign. The 28-year-old is throwing his slider more than ever before in 2024 and the results have been instantaneous. Across his six starts and 33.1 innings, Crawford is maintaining a 1.35 ERA and a 2.20 FIP. However, it should be noted that this surge in results didn’t come completely out of nowhere. Crawford worked 129.1 innings for Boston in 2023 and registered a very solid 3.25 xERA. The RHP has a bit of a track record for success.
In the other corner, we don’t officially know who is going to start for the Giants on Wednesday, yet it seems like Daulton Jefferies is the man that’s likely to be tasked with pitching a bulk of San Francisco’s innings. Jefferies has had a few cups of coffee at the MLB level, even appearing in a game back on March 31 for the Giants against the Padres. Jefferies actually started that contest, allowing nine runs (five earned) and recording only six outs. Yikes. Unfortunately for the RHP, that outing lines up with his career numbers at the MLB level, where he’s managed an inflated 6.33 ERA.
Despite a lengthy list of injuries, the Red Sox own baseball’s fourth-highest wRC+ across the last two weeks (125). This is a lineup that can and probably will do damage against Jefferies and San Francisco’s bullpen.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
