Two of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season continue their four-game set this weekend, as the New York Mets (55-67) look to make it two in a row against the St. Louis Cardinals (54-67) on Friday night. First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium. New York will give the ball to the recently recalled Joey Lucchesi (1-0, 4.43 ERA), while St. Louis turns to Zack Thompson (2-4, 3.96) in place of the injured Steven Matz.
The Cardinals enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +120. The run total is set at 9.5.
Mets-Cardinals picks: Friday, August 18
Injury report
Mets
Out: INF Mark Vientos (wrist), OF Starling Marte (groin), INF Luis Guillorme (calf)
Cardinals
Out: Lars Nootbaar (abdomen), 2B Nolan Gorman (back), OF Dylan Carlson (oblique), SP/RP Jake Woodford (shoulder), UTIL Brendan Donovan (elbow), RP Ryan Helsley (forearm)
Starting pitchers
Joey Lucchesi vs. Zack Thompson
The 30-year-old Lucchesi hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since May, when he put up a 7.20 ERA over 10 innings across three starts. With a fastball that doesn’t even crack 90 mph and a microscopic 16.1% whiff rate (some eight points lower than the MLB average), he simply doesn’t have the goods to get through a lineup multiple times at this point in his career — and his .278/.342/.514 slash line allowed to righties means he could be in trouble against the Cardinals’ slew of right-handed bats.
With Matz out for the year, the Cardinals are giving the lefty Thompson the first crack at filling his spot in the rotation down the stretch. This will be Thompson’s 18th appearance and second start of the season, after he struck out eight and allowed just one run on two hits against the Rockies back on August 6. He last appeared out of the bullpen this past weekend against the Royals, going four frames again and striking out five while allowing a single earned run. Thompson’s curve has been his biggest weapon so far this year, as batters are hitting just .152 against the pitch.
Over/Under pick
I’m actually excited to see what Thompson can bring to the table now that the Cardinals have fully committed to him as a starter for the final few weeks, but I’m still taking the over here. Lucchesi has a nightmarish history against guys like Paul Goldschmidt (.938 SLG against) and Nolan Arenado (.909 SLG against) in his career, and St. Louis could clear this over all by themselves. If New York can pitch in on the scoreboard at all, we should see a relatively high-scoring game on Friday night.
Pick: Over 9.5
Moneyline pick
I have more faith in what St. Louis brings to the table both on the mound and at the plate in this spot, so naturally I’m backing the Cardinals here. Lucchesi just hasn’t shown the ability to survive at the Major League level with his pedestrian stuff, and righties like Goldschmidt, Arenado, Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker and Tyler O’Neill should provide Thompson with enough run support to carry him to a win.
Pick: Cardinals
