After failing to make much of any headway in the NL Wild Card race since the start of the second half, the New York Mets finally pulled the cord late Thursday night, as GM Billy Eppler sent closer David Robertson — arguably the team’s most valuable trade chip — to the division rival Miami Marlins. In return, Miami is sending a pair of Minor Leaguers, 18-year-old infielder Marco Vargas and 19-year-old catcher Ronald Hernandez, to New York.
For the Mets, it’s the first of what figures to be multiple trades sending veterans out the door after a profoundly disappointing first four months of the season. The Marlins, meanwhile, continue to be aggressive in pursuit of the team’s first postseason berth in a full, 162-game season since their run to a World Series title way back in 2003. There’s a lot to break down here, so let’s get to it.
David Robertson trade grades
Mets: B+
Look, if this were a grade for the Mets’ 2023 season so far, it would obviously be much, much lower. The fact that the most expensive roster in the history of baseball has reached this point is an abject failure, point blank. But New York can’t rewind the last few months; what’s done is done, and now that they’re here, Eppler should be commended for how he navigated this deal.
The Mets are getting Miami’s two best rookie-ball hitters. Vargas, an 18-year-old shortstop, is putting up contact and swing-decision metrics that are extremely advanced for his age, and has posted a .457 OBP and .899 OPS in his stateside debut. Hernandez, meanwhile, is in the midst of a breakout offensive season and has been called “a lock” to stick behind the plate. Yes, both of them are teenagers, with all the risk that entails. And yes, it probably would’ve been nice if a system short on controllable pitching could’ve landed, say, a Double-A starter. But everyone would like to land a Double-A starter, and the sort of short-term thinking that prioritizes proximity to the Majors over ceiling is what often hamstrings lesser organizations.
Vargas and Hernandez obviously won’t be ready to help the 2024 or 2025 Mets, but this is the sort of bigger swing more teams should take as they look to maximize returns around the trade deadline. Steve Cohen’s pockets are only getting deeper; if the Mets want to build out their depth or plug specific holes on next year’s team, there’s free agency for that, as they did with the signings of Robertson, Tommy Pham and Mark Canha. The name of the game here is acquiring as much talent as possible, and this is how it works — by the time a prospect is already elite, it’s likely too late to acquire them, and the more 17-year-old lottery tickets you buy, the better the chances of one (or more) of them growing into a star down the line.
Marlins: B
Six blown saves in just the month of July was enough to convince GM Kim Ng to prioritize bolstering Miami’s bullpen, acquiring Jorge Lopez just a day before making the deal for Robertson. The 38-year-old figures to slide right into the closer’s role, relegating lefties Tanner Scott and the struggling A.J. Puk to more strategic late-inning spots. Unless Josh Hader magically becomes available in the next couple of days, Robertson was the best reliever rental on the market, with a 2.05 ERA this year and years of experience navigating pressure moments. This deal makes the Marlins significantly better right now, and they did so without dipping into their first tier of prospects — which they could still feasibly use to acquire a bat like Jeimer Candelario.
So, why only a B? While Robertson makes the Marlins better, I’m not sure he does a ton to move the needle for a team that overachieved just to get themselves into Wild Card contention. Miami enters play on Friday 55-48, half a game back in a race that features five teams — six, if you want to count the streaking Chicago Cubs — battling it out for three spots. The Marlins have far and away the worst run differential of any of those clubs, and they’re just 7-13 in July. A sturdier bullpen will no doubt help stop the bleeding, but the fact remains that Miami just isn’t all that talented of a team — they rank 19th in team OPS, and with Eury Perez on the shelf, Jesus Luzardo is the only starter with an ERA currently better than league average. Kudos to Ng for trying to get this team back to the playoffs, but it’s hard not to think that she gave up two young prospects with a ton of upside without moving the Major League team’s needle all that much.
