In what felt like the longest All-Star break ever, the second-half of the MLB season kicks off tonight. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Game Total over 9 runs -118
This is a game that I think will feature a lot of offense tonight with Patrick Corbin and Frankie Montas set to take the mound. Corbin, of course, has been someone we target against frequently. Lately, in particular, he’s been getting knocked around and now has a 5.57 ERA with an xERA of 6.29. He faced the Reds in his first start of the season and allowed four runs on seven hits through 4.1 innings. I’m not thinking the eight day lay off between Corbin’s last start and today will do him much good.
On the other side, we have Montas, who has some really bad numbers against lefties. They’ve tortured him for a .376 wOBA, 10 of his 12 home runs allowed and a 6.27 FIP. The Nationals can load up on lefties and will likely feature at least five of them in tonight’s lineup, including four of the first six batters. The Nationals have also been a very good hitting club against the fastball, which Montas is throwing about 35% of the time. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .360 wOBA with a .180 ISO and just a 19% K%.
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Michael Wacha to record a win +125
I’m not sure you’re looking to take the Royals to win today, seeing as they’re -225 favorites. A way you can attack this instead, is to go with Wacha to record a win at +125. He’s been so damn good since the beginning of May, allowing no more than two runs in eight of the nine starts over that span. This will be the third time he’s faced the White Sox this season and he’s gone 13 innings allowing just two runs on six hits and eight strikeouts. The White Sox, as you’d expect, are near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category this month. They come into tonight slashing .225/.289/.355 with 10 home runs through 12 games in July. As long as the bullpen doesn’t blow this for Wacha, he has a great opportunity to walk away with the win tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Phillies Team Total over 4.5 runs -115
Martin Perez is taking the hill for the Pirates to start off the second half. That’s good news for the Phillies! Perez has been awful thus far with no signs of turning it around. He enters today with a 5.15 ERA with an xERA of 5.79. The Phillies are a very good hitting ball club against lefties, so I don’t expect the second-half to start well for Perez. Perez focuses on a sinker as his main pitch, throwing it 41% of the time. Tonight’s expected lineup for the Phillies has a .404 wOBA, a .226 ISO and just an 8.2% K% against that pitch this season. I’d expect this to be a short night for Perez, which is likely good news for the Phillies and their team total going over.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
