The MLB All-Star break is a time to reflect, but also look ahead to the final two months of the regular season. We all still have futures alive from the beginning of Spring Training — keep building that WAR, Gunnar Henderson — yet now is a perfect time to get back on the DraftKings Sportsbook and look for more value.
With that in mind, here are a few of my favorite bets to make before things get back underway on Friday evening.
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Division Winner
Rangers (+850)
Like last season, it appears that the race for the AL West crown will go down to the wire — it just didn’t always seem like that was going to be the case. On June 18, with the Astros and Rangers both sitting at 33-40, the Mariners were 10.0 games up on their division rivals, boasting one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. It appeared that Seattle was well on its way to its first division title since all the way back in 2001. However, things have taken a turn in the last month. The Mariners now sit a single game ahead of Houston, while Texas is only five games back despite being four games below the .500 mark.
About that last point: The Rangers are better than their record indicates. This isn’t simply a call to remember Texas is the reigning World Series winner and that you shouldn’t doubt the heart of a champion, either. The Rangers entered the All-Star break with a positive run differential and, as such, they own a .511 expected winning percentage — a mark only slightly trailing the Mariners’ .526 percentage.
Texas also projects to have one of the league’s easiest schedules down the stretch. The combined winning percentage of its remaining opponents is a putrid .486, which is tied for the fourth-lowest of any team. Of the 66 games the Rangers have yet to play, 20 will be against the White Sox (7), Athletics (6) and Angels (7). Those happen to be the three worst clubs in the American League. Plus, though Texas may not make any massive moves at the deadline, the roster should get better when several key players return to health. Josh Jung (wrist), Evan Carter (back) and Tyler Mahle (elbow) all could be back within the next couple weeks, while Jacob DeGrom (elbow) threw a 30-pitch bullpen earlier this month. Crazier things have happened.
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Regular Season Wins
Rays Under 80.5 (-115)
I’m admitting defeat on one of my preseason win totals. I initially liked the Rays to go over 83.5 victories. It seemed like such a low number for an organization that’s routinely exceeded that total by a wide margin across the last decade. However, the loss of raw talent from the 2023 campaign was simply too much to overcome. Injuries to Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen robbed Tampa Bay of three top-tier starters, while the arrest and restriction of former top prospect Wander Franco still obviously looms large. Subpar performances from Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz haven’t helped matters much, either.
The truth of the matter is that the Rays are currently sitting at .500 with the toughest remaining schedule in MLB by winning percentage (.528). On top of that, you could definitely make the case that Tampa’s been extremely lucky to get as many victories as it has, with the team sporting an underwhelming .423 expected winning percentage. The Rays have been outscored by 63 runs in their 96 games this season. For context, the only teams that have been more lopsided on the scoreboard are the Marlins, the Rockies, the White Sox, the Athletics, the Angels and the Blue Jays. Not exactly the type of company a “winning” team wants to be keeping.
Tampa is a smart organization. They’ll know this isn’t a season where they need to push at the deadline. In fact, they’ve already started selling pieces like Aaron Civale and Phil Maton. I’d expect more of that in the coming weeks.
Rookie of the Year
Spencer Horwitz (+5000)
While the National League Rookie of the Year award is Paul Skenes’ to lose, the American League is as open as it’s ever been. To be perfectly blunt, it’s been an awful season for standout rookie performances. Well, aside from Mason Miller (+1200), whose odds I actually really like in a vacuum, but there’s a reasonable chance that the Athletics’ closer is playing for an NL team by the time August rolls around.
Wyatt Langford (+125) is currently the favorite, thanks primarily to name recognition and a hot month of June where the outfielder posted a .309 average with a 147 wRC+. Still, for 2024 as a whole, Langford’s disappointed with a .305 wOBA and a 0.6 fWAR in 72 games. It’s actually Colton Cowser (+550) that leads all AL rookies in fWAR (2.1), yet most of that was accumulated in April. Since May 1, Cowser is slashing .183/.278/.328 with a 74 wRC+. He’d also started to lose plate appearances to Heston Kjerstad (+5000), prior to the former second-overall pick suffering a concussion at the hands of a wild Clay Holmes sinker.
Again, this has all been a long way of saying that a strong final two months from a number of players could be enough to secure this award, so you might as well take a long shot. Horwitz is a fun story, too. Formerly a 24th round pick and natural first baseman, Horwitz switched positions in the middle of May at Triple-A Buffalo so he’d have an opportunity to get called up by the Blue Jays. He was, as a second baseman, and he’s since slashed .320/.418/.485 with a 159 wRC+ across 122 plate appearances. It’s a small sample, but Horwitz’s .295 expected batting average and .384 expected wOBA back up his results. He’s been worth two Outs Above Average at second base, too. A huge reason Horwitz has racked up 1.3 fWAR in just 33 games.
Don’t get me wrong, it would be a massive upset if the 26-year-old walked away with Rookie of the Year honors at the season’s end. However, Horwitz’s odds are way off. Heck, I feel the same about Ben Rice (+4000). You might as well put a sprinkle on both.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
