While the San Diego Padres and New York Mets have a lot of ground to make up in their respective divisional races, both are in the thick of the National League Wild Card picture and wrap up their series in Queens on Sunday with both looking to get a momentum-building win.
San Diego Padres (-115, 7.5) vs. New York Mets
Dylan Cease gets the pitching start for the Padres, who has pitched even better than the 6-5 record with a 3.36 ERA would indicate.
Cease has a 3.01 fielding independent with a career-low 2.5 walks per nine innings allowed while getting 11 strikeouts per nine innings and gets to face a Mets lineup that has struggled to hit at home.
The Mets entered Saturday last in the National League in runs per game at home with less than 3.6 runs per game while no other National League team is averaging fewer than 3.9 runs per game at home, all while the Mets lead all MLB teams in road scoring with nearly 5.4 runs per game.
The Padres have also been better on the road, averaging fewer than 4.2 runs per game at home compared to 4.8 runs per game on the road and will look to continue their road success against Mets starting pitcher Tylor Megill.
Megill enters having allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, though not all of the runs allowed were earned, posting for the season a 3.51 ERA with a 2.67 fielding independent with 11.2 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings while having allowed just one home run in his 25 2/3 innings this season.
Megill’s biggest problem is that he is right-handed as the Padres entered Saturday with a .275 batting average against right-handed pitching with no other team hitting above .263 against right-handers.
With the Mets bullpen starting to stabilize, but still experiencing issues, posting a 4.80 bullpen ERA over the past 30 days, which is 24th in the league in that span, the Padres will prevail on Sunday.
The Play: Padres -115
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