Taking stud running backs early used to be the norm, but with changes in how NFL offenses work over the last twenty-ish years, that method isn’t quite as popular. Sure, you can win your league by drafting all sorts of ways, but running backs have lost value in both real and fake football and that means you should be wary of going all in on them early in this year’s fantasy drafts.
As usual, there are always exceptions to the rules and Christian McCaffrey is one of those exceptions. He was last year’s No. 1 pick in fantasy and he finished as the top running back by a wide margin. But, if you look at the names after McCaffrey in last year’s average draft position, there were plenty of disappointments.
A “Zero RB” strategy passes on the high-priced studs and accumulates high upside running backs later on in the draft, so you can take the more stable stud wide receivers early on. There is more to it than that, but overall, that sums up the plan.
Starters & committee backs, but cheap
Zamir White, Raiders — (RB23, Overall 82) — White has the highest ADP of this group at 82nd overall, which has me a little hesitant. The good news is that he is going to start the season as the no-doubt lead back after they let Josh Jacobs walk in free agency. In White’s four starts last season, he rushed 84 times for 397 yards and a TD for a 4.73 yards per carry average. He also caught 9-of-13 passes for 60 yards. Those are acceptable numbers for fantasy.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins, (RB30, Overall 95) — Mostert will share work with De’Von Archane, who is going much earlier in drafts this off-season. But, Mostert isn’t going to completely disappear coming off 21 touchdowns and 1,087 total yards. When it’s rolling, the Dolphins offense can put up huge numbers and Mostert has proven his ability around the goal line.
James Conner, Cardinals — (RB25, Overall 85) — With Trey Benson waiting in the wings, it can be a little scary grabbing Conner, but the man gets the job done. Last season he put up his most rushing yards and yards per carry by a wide margin. He finished the season with 1,105 total yards and 9 total touchdowns with an outstanding five-yards per carry. He’ll get the first crack at lead back duties and should be successful as long as he’s healthy.
Jonathon Brooks , Panthers — (RB26, Overall 90) — Brooks was the first running back taken in the 2024 draft and is set to be the starter in Carolina. He might have gone in the first round if he hadn’t torn his ACL last season. New head coach Dave Canales helped Rachaad White to a huge season in 2024, which included plenty of work as a receiver. We should expect a similar workload for Brooks in 2024.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers — (RB27, Overall 89) — Warren was an analytics darling last season, as he outplayed Najee Harris in metrics like explosive run rate, yards after contact, rushing yards over expectation, and targets per route run. With Arthur Smith as the Steelers new OC, we should see a tremendous amount of work for the running backs, both on the ground and through the air. Warren could see the same split as last season and still put up good numbers, but the hope is that he sees an increase in that split and flourishes this season.
Devin Singletary, Giants — (RB33, Overall 104) — Singletary showed his mettle by beating out Dameon Pierce last season, the Texans incumbent starting running back. Houston went ahead and let him walk in free agency and brought in Joe Mixon, but Singletary then ended up in New York, replacing Saquon Barkley as the likely starter. He’s proven he can play in the league and hold down a starting role. He’s not going to blow away the competition, but there isn’t a lot of competition in New York for the job.
Gus Edwards, Chargers — (RB39, Overall 121) — Edwards’ is the starting running back for the Chargers at this point in the off-season. Much will depend on how well J.K. Dobbins can return from yet another injury. Rookie Kimani Vidal was drafted in the sixth round and should be able to land a roster spot as the RB3. He could make moves, but Edwards should remain the lead back heading into the season. He’ll also be on a team where Jim Harbaugh will force the run.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos — (RB54, Overall 166) — McLaughlin played well in a supporting role last season, leading the team with 5.4 yards per attempt and catching 31 passes as he shared work with Samaje Perine and Javonte Williams. Williams appeared to return too quickly from his ACL tear and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt as the lead back. Denver also added early down runner Audric Estime and pass-catching specialist Blake Watson. This situation is tough to call, as no player has the job going into training camp. The good news is that Sean Payton loves throwing to his running backs and McLaughlin has that ability along with showing the best out of the group last season.
Tyjae Spears, Titans — (RB32, Overall 105) — Spears put together a nice season last year despite playing behind Derrick Henry. He accumulated 838 total yards and three touchdowns, along with 52 receptions. Tony Pollard is the nominal starter after coming in via free agency, but his 2023 season isn’t the jumping off point for a no-doubt every-down back. These two should compete for touches and Spears has shown better play over the last year.
Chase Brown, Bengals — (RB36, Overall 119) — The Bengals added Zack Moss this off-season to be the likely early down back. Moss played well with Jonathan Taylor out last season, but doesn’t have the resume to have a lot of leeway, especially if his backup/3rd down back is playing well. Brown has a ton of speed and has shown an early aptitude for explosive plays. These two will likely share work, with Moss getting the majority of the carries, but there will be room for Brown to carve out a role even if Moss plays well and stays healthy.
Jerome Ford, Browns — (RB41, Overall 127) — Nick Chubb won’t likely be ready for the start of the season, which should give Ford the start out of the gates. Chubb will return at some point, but Ford should be the guy for a big chunk of the season.
Backups with upside
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers — (RB61, Overall 196) — Mitchell has shown he can perform well in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but injuries have hurt him, as well as bringing in all world Christian McCaffrey. But, Mitchell is healthy at the moment and if anything were to happen to CMC, Mitchell’s fantasy value would go through the roof.
Ty Chandler, Vikings — (RB45, Overall 144) — Chandler didn’t blow up with Alexander Mattison out last season, but he held his own, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 102 attempts, while catching 21-of-25 passes for 159 yards. The Vikings added veteran Aaron Jones, who showed he’s still got some juice when he was healthy at the end of last season. The trouble is, Jones wasn’t healthy for much of the season, dealing with hamstring injuries. Chandler should see plenty of work this season at a good ADP for Zero RB’ers.
Blake Corum, Rams — (RB37, Overall 120) — Sean McVay found a gem in the fifth round of the ‘22 draft with Kyren Williams and now they hope they’ve found a very similar player in Corum, who they drafted earlier in the third round this off-season. Williams was very much an every-down back and put up great numbers in the Rams offense last season. Williams should remain the lead back, but he did miss four games last season and his usage makes it easier to envision an injury opening up time for Corum.
Trey Benson, Cardinals — (RB34, Overall 108) — James Conner had his best rushing season ever last year and still missed three games due to injury. Conner’s injury prone, which I usually don’t put too much stock in, but he has a strong record of missing time. He does return and still play well, so he’s reliable in that sense, but Benson could take advantage of any missed time and win time this year.
Marshawn Lloyd, Packers — (RB44, Overall 145) — The Packers ended last season strong and there’s plenty of hope for their offense to pick up where it left off. They added RB Josh Jacobs this offseason to be their lead back and that’s his job as long as he’s healthy this season. But, Lloyd is the upside guy if Jacobs were to get injured and, we’ve seen coach Matt LaFleur use something like a 60-40 split often in his backfield. We have a chance to see Lloyd find some footing this year.
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (RB42, Overall 132) — Charbonnet should start the season behind Ken Walker. He could have some flex appeal with Walker on the field, but he will likely need a Walker injury to help vault him to fantasy relevancy. The good news is that he showed he could play in his limited role last season and there is no reason to think he wouldn’t be a top player if Walker was out of the picture.
Kendre Miller, Saints — (RB43, Overall 140) — Miller dealt with injuries and an inability to move up the depth chart his rookie year, but he’s still on the team and they didn’t add much competition. Alvin Kamara remains the lead back, but he had a down year last season and the future isnt bright for him at this point in his career. Miller should at least get a chance to show his stuff this year.
Late-round fliers
Jaylen Wright, Dolphins — (RB47, Overall 148) — Wright is another speedster in the running back room for Miami. You know how well Mike McDaniel can scheme his players into space, which would likely give Wright fantasy value as soon as he can get on the field. Unfortunately he does have Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane ahead of him, but if he gets his chance, watch out.
Khalil Herbert, Bears — (RB57, Overall 177) — The Bears don’t appear to like Herbert all that much, as they’ve brought in Roschon Johnson and now D’Andre Swift at the position. The thing is, Herbert puts up good numbers when given a chance. He seems like a player that could be on the move this training camp, which could help his fantasy value. But even if he stays in Chicago, he still has a shot at putting up numbers when given a chance.
Dylan Laube, Raiders — (RB73, Overall 234) — The Raiders will give Zamir White the lead role out of the gate, but Laube could earn passing downs early on and see more work if White were to miss any time.
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers — (RB55, Overall 168) — Despite his strong fantasy numbers, Rachaad White did most of his fantasy damage with volume. Irving has an opportunity here to carve out a role for himself, as the team would like to take some of the load off White.
Ray Davis, Bills — (RB51, Overall 158) — The Bills leaned on the run more after Joe Brady took over as OC in the middle of last season. And now that Brady is the official OC, we should expect that to continue. If it does, they’ll likely need rookie Davis to step up as a contributor. His ability between the tackles could help him earn goal-line work as well. While James Cook remains the starter, we should take into account his size and power in comparison to Davis.