Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 5

I think it’s time to start getting optimistic about the NFL again. There’s always, of course, the preseason fantasy draft hype, the anecdotal missives from OTAs and training camp, the drilled-down beneath-the-hood analysis that reveals how talented these players are, were they just able to stay healthy, or touch the football more often. Then comes September, and those first four weeks, which felt this year especially like a slog. It’s the injuries—yes. But it’s the sloppy play, too. In this case, with all the QB1 injuries, one might beget the other. But the four weeks behind us may as well be considered the NFL’s regular season preseason, as it were, and I think it’s time things’ll really kick into gear. High-profile players will return soon for the middle-eight weeks. Depth chart situations feel as solidified as ever, this week.

So, this week, we’re going for absolute max-production plays. We want the guys whose matchups are going to win you a week. Not the guys who might just keep whatever’s left of your drafted 16 slightly buoyant as the water level churns higher. Let’s blow the roof off this thing.

Happy Fantasy Friday once more—and let’s dominated this weekend with renewed, velociraptor hope. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 5 edition. We’re-so-back edition. We’re after every edge for Sunday.

For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 5. Here are my other offerings in this edition:

• Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 5
• Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 5
• Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 5
• Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 5

All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football Week 5: Top five deep sleeper plays

Michael Mayer, LV (at Patriots)

Klint Kubiak has found room for Michael Mayer alongside Brock Bowers, and I’m starting Mayer this week. In the two games since Bowers returned, Mayer has run routes on 75.3% of Las Vegas’ dropbacks, almost unchanged from 76.2% without him. Kirk Cousins’ heavier passing workload has lifted Mayer’s opportunity value from 7.6 expected PPR points per game in Weeks 1–2 to 10.7 in Weeks 3–4. Kubiak moves Bowers wide and into the slot, with Mayer frequently beside the tackle; Las Vegas’ bigger formations have accommodated both as receivers.

Mayer has also earned a team-leading 26.1% of the Raiders’ play-action targets during those last two games. New England has conceded 9.9 adjusted net yards per attempt against play action through four weeks, compared with 3.8 without it. Cousins already seeks Mayer on the calls this defense has struggled most to defend. New England’s frequent man coverage warrants restraint, though: Mayer has managed only 1.13 yards per route across 24 man routes this season, a modest return that makes last week’s eight-catch, 82-yard afternoon an ambitious expectation.

Mike Gesicki, CIN (at Dolphins)

Joe Burrow has targeted Mike Gesicki in the end zone three times through four games, more than any other Bengal. Gesicki has turned three of his eleven catches into touchdowns, and I like him as an upside TE2 this week. Running routes on only 53.8% of Cincinnati’s dropbacks restricts the reception expectation, although his opportunities have supported 10.4 expected PPR points per game through four weeks. Burrow has also aimed six passes at him at least ten yards downfield between the numbers, second most on Cincinnati.

Miami has allowed only two tight-end touchdowns through four games. Opposing tight ends have, however, caught 29 of 31 targets and averaged 11.5 yards per reception. The receiving-yardage outlook is considerably better than that low touchdown total suggests, particularly for a player Burrow already seeks ten yards downfield and beyond.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both questionable, with Chase still in concussion protocol. Either absence could expand Gesicki’s routes. Dohnte Meyers’ nine targets and Chase Brown’s eleven catches last week show the other receiving work already competing with his.

Keaton Mitchell, LAC (vs. Broncos)

Keaton Mitchell and Omarion Hampton have each received 26 touches over the last two games. Mitchell has caught eight passes to Hampton’s two, however, which makes Mitchell my preference for a PPR flex spot. Justin Herbert is already looking for him early in the progression: Mitchell ranks sixth among running backs in first-read target share through four games. His 18.8% share of Los Angeles’ targets last week shows how often Mike McDaniel’s receiving plans have included him.

Those planned targets now meet a Denver defense allowing backs 37.3 receiving yards per game through four weeks, eighth most in the NFL. Mitchell can make tacklers miss, too: his 38.5% missed-tackles-forced rate since Week 3 ranks third among backs with at least 25 touches.

With Joe Alt expected to miss Sunday and Rashawn Slater missing practice with an ankle injury, Los Angeles could struggle to protect Herbert and sustain drives. Kimani Vidal also competes for routes, while last week’s scoring-position allocation favored Hampton, who received two of the three backfield opportunities inside the ten.

Tyler Allgeier, ARI (vs. Lions)

Tyler Allgeier played all seven of Arizona’s offensive snaps inside the ten last week. His 68% share of those snaps through four games outpaces his touch allocation—only three of eight backfield opportunities in that area. Jeremiyah Love is expected to play through his ankle injury, and he led Arizona with fourteen carries last week to Allgeier’s eight. Arizona preferred Allgeier’s pass protection on the final drive, contributing to his larger snap share.

I’m starting Allgeier as an RB3 against Detroit’s vulnerable perimeter defense. The Cardinals have generated 0.36 EPA per rush outside right tackle this season, second best; Detroit has allowed 0.17 in that area, fifth worst. Elijah Wilkinson remains at right tackle, and Elijah Higgins helps Arizona run beyond the tackles. Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaiah Adams are out, taxing the remaining blockers and lowering the expectation for sustained rushing success. Allgeier’s 22-yard touchdown run against the Giants included a stiff-arm, an encouraging finish before facing a defense that has already conceded sixteen runs of at least ten yards through four games, second most in the league.

Tre Tucker, LV (at Patriots)

New England has ruled out Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, and Tre Tucker has run 80% of his routes from outside alignments this season. The Patriots also lose cornerbacks Karon Prunty and Channing Canada; the injuries reach well beyond a single replacement. Tucker has struggled against man coverage, averaging 0.96 yards per route across 23 routes this season, but Sunday’s depleted secondary changes whom he’ll have to beat. I’m willing to use him at WR3 against that altered group.

Tucker leads Las Vegas with 2.81 yards per play-action route through four games, showing how productive he has been when Kirk Cousins throws after a run fake. Klint Kubiak has used extra tight ends and backs in protection, helping Cousins limit sacks to 3.4% of dropbacks, the league’s second-lowest rate this season.

Jalen Nailor and Dont’e Thornton are out, with Jack Bech on injured reserve. Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer remain Cousins’ strongest alternatives, yet Tucker drew eight targets on a 71% route share last week with both tight ends playing. His four catches for 44 yards were a modest return on that opportunity.