All teams are in action tonight, starting at 6:35 p.m. ET. I’ll give a few bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Phillies run line -1.5 -102
At first glance, a pitching duel is looking as if it’ll take place between Zack Wheeler and Kutter Crawford. Both have great numbers across the board, so why wouldn’t it be? But, Crawford has really been struggling lately. Over his last five starts, Crawford has allowed at least four runs in four of them, including six through 4.1 innings against the Brewers. Teams are making a lot of contact against him as well, as he gave up 29 hits over those five starts. Now, he’s tasked with going against the Phillies, who have one of the best offenses in the league. Tonight’s expected lineup has a .532 wOBA against the fastball, which is what Crawford is throwing 40% of the time. The Phillies have been one of the better teams on the run line with a 37-30 record, which includes a 16-13 record as the away team. With Wheeler taking the mound, I’m backing the Phillies to win this game by at least two runs.
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Triston McKenzie over 2.5 walks -115
McKenzie has brutal command. I don’t know how else to say it. He comes into this game having walked 36 batters through 62.2 innings, that gives him a BB/9 of 5.1. Like, what the hell man, don’t you want to keep your innings clean? Anyways, that has me on his over prop for walks tonight against the Reds, who are willing to draw walks. They have a 9.2% BB% on the year, which ranks them 6th in the league. Particularly, the top of their lineup has some candidates to walk, as TJ Friedl, Elle De La Cruz, and Spencer Steer have at least a 9% walk rate against righties. As for McKenzie, this 2.5 walk total is a number he’s gone over in eight of the 12 starts he’s made. That’s honestly absurd. I was expecting a 2.5 number for him tonight but expected the line to be juiced at -135 or -140. Getting this at -115 is more than ok with me.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Oneil Cruz over 1.5 H/R/RBI -130
Plenty of attention will be on this game tonight, as Paul Skenes will be taking the hill. But, I’m looking more toward the offense of the Pirates against Miles Mikolas. He continues to put up average at best numbers and I think Cruz is in a great spot to take advantage of that. Mikolas has a .351 wOBA with a 4.47 FIP and five of the 12 home runs he’s allowed. Mikolas throws a lot of sinkers and Cruz has been handling that pitch in a big way. On the year he has a .345 wOBA with a .318 ISO against it. I think he does enough to cash the over on 1.5 hits, runs and RBI.
You can also back this bet by taking my parlay that’s available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
