All teams are in action tonight, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. I’ll give a few bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Game Total under 8 runs -115
Taking a quick glance at tonight’s matchup, Logan Allen vs. Ryan Weathers, maybe the under doesn’t jump out immediately. But, once you start looking into it, it makes sense. First and foremost, the Marlins are by far the worst offense in the league against lefties. They come into tonight with a with a .257 wOBA, a 64 wRC+, a 5.4 BB% and a 21% K%. They simply don’t hit lefties. I’m doubling down on that notion by putting my faith in Logan Allen, who has been anything but consistent this season. His 5.83 ERA and an xERA of 4.96 tells that story. But, against the two main pitches Allen throws, a four seam and changeup, tonights expected lineup has a wOBA of .261 and .237 against those pitches from a lefty.
Weathers has been good overall for the Marlins on the mound and has a 3.41 ERA and an xERA of 3.81. His command has drastically improved and he’s inducing groundballs at the highest rate of his career at 51%. I’m not thinking he’s going to be totally clean against a good Guardians offense, but his earned run prop is currently set at 2.5 runs with the under heavily juiced at -165.
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers
The Pick: Game Total under 8 runs -118
Another good pitching matchup tonight will take place between Logan Webb and Michael Lorenzen. I was thinking this game was going to be either way 7 or 7.5, so I was a bit surprised to see 8 on the board. Webb has been fantastic but he’s going to see some regression at some point. His xERA of 4.77 is quite the difference from his 2.95 ERA. However, the Rangers have not been a strong club against the sinker. Webb has increased his usage of that pitch, along with his sweeper, and has gotten away from the changeup a bit. Against sinkers, the Rangers have a combined .296 wOBA against that when thrown by a right-handed pitcher. Webb is using that about 45% of the time this season, so expect to see a lot of that pitch.
Lorenzen has been great other than one blip on the radar against the Athletics. He’s been a model of consistency, going at least 6 innings in eight of his nine starts. The Giants offense is not one to be intimidated by, as tonights expected lineup has a combined .297 wOBA against righties.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
The Pick: Spencer Steer over 1.5 bases +115
We have Steer going against a lefty, so I’m always looking to take his overs. On the surface, Steer doesn’t have numbers that pop out at you but he’s a very good hitter against lefties. On the year he has a .370 wOBA with a 136 wRC+ and a .246 ISO. If we look at his career numbers, they jump up to a .390 wOBA with a 144 wRC+ and a .242 ISO. Tonight, he’ll face Justin Steele, which presents a great matchup for the Reds hitter. Steer has a .417 wOBA and a .403 wOBA against his two main pitches, a fastball and slider. Steele combines to throw those 86% of the time, so Steer will see almsot nothing he can’t handle.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
