I got a little too cute on Monday. Nathan Eovaldi was on a much higher pitch count than anticipated and the Tigers had a little bit more swing and miss than intended, which means we finished the night just 1-1 on article plays. Still, for the season as a whole, we’re 24-13 (+10.3u). That’s not too shabby.
Let’s try and get back in the black Wednesday evening.
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Orioles ML (+102)
You don’t get the chance to bet the Orioles are underdogs very often. In fact, Wednesday will only be the 11th time Baltimore hasn’t been favored in a contest so far this season. In the prior 10 games? The Orioles are 8-2. Their 80.0% winning percentage within the split representing the best mark in all of baseball. This should come as no surprise. Baltimore is incredibly good.
So, is there any reason to fear the Blue Jays? Jose Berrios has been fantastic, pitching to a 2.78 ERA across his first 12 starts of 2024. Yet a 4.01 SIERA, a 4.15 xERA and a 4.25 FIP loom over Berrios’ surface stats like a black cloud on the horizon. Regression appears to be inevitable for the veteran RHP — especially in a matchup with an Orioles lineup that leads MLB in ISO (.197) and sits third in wRC+ (116). Berrios has also historically had his issues with LHBs. That’s a rough Achilles’ heel when facing an organization with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn and more. It simply feels like a bad matchup.
Speaking of regression, Albert Suarez is also likely not as great as his 1.57 ERA suggests, yet the 34-year-old has only allowed a single earned run in his last 14.2 innings and his overall 2.78 FIP is pristine. He should be able to do enough to at least keep this tilt close. However, considering Baltimore is 13-4 in its past 17 games versus Toronto, Suarez won’t likely be hurting for run support.
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Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Under 9.5 (-122)
I know. I know. The wind is blowing out tonight at Wrigley. I’m not going to sit here and say that doesn’t matter at all, but I’d counter with this: These two lineups can’t hit. Tuesday’s 7-6 Cubs’ victory is the exception to the rule. Over the last 30 days, the White Sox (.220) and Cubs (.216) rank 28th and 29th, respectively, in batting average. In that same span, the White Sox sport the league’s worst wRC+ at 79. The Cubs haven’t been much better, with the team’s 88 wRC+ putting them only two spots ahead in 28th.
Then there’s the pitching matchup. Say what you will about the state of the White Sox organization, but the front office made a solid addition this offseason inking Erick Fedde to a reasonable two-year deal. The RHP has been all you could ask for, registering a 3.12 ERA and a 3.43 xERA over 12 starts and 69.1 innings. Heck, he might even end up at the All-Star Game with the way he’s looked the past two months. Jameson Taillon has been just as reliable for the Cubs. The 32-year-old owns a 2.84 ERA and a 3.56 xERA in his eight outings in 2024. In terms of consistency, Taillon has yet to surrender more than three earned runs in a single start this season. If both men pitch to their usual ability on Wednesday, I don’t think this total gets close.
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