Almost every team is in action tonight. I’ll give a few bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Atlanta Braves -0.5 first five run line -110
The Braves and Red Sox will meet for a quick, two game series starting tonight. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they’ll see Max Fried tonight. He’s been cruising lately, tossing 17 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs and Nationals. Fried allowed just two runs (one earned) over that span while striking out 15. With the Red Sox dealing with a huge number of injuries, the starting lineup is looking unrecognizable. Against fastballs from a lefty, tonight’s projected lineup has just a .218 wOBA with a .066 ISO and a 30% K%. If we pull those numbers back to include last season as well, they have just a .284 wOBA with a .130 ISO and a 27% K%. Fried also throws a curveball a lot and yeah, those numbers are just as bad for the Red Sox.
Kutter Crawford will be going for the Red Sox and he’s been heading in the wrong direction. After being so good in the month of April, he ended the month of May with a 5.14 ERA, a .325 wOBA and a 4.37 FIP. In fact, Crawford allowed 11 earned runs over his last 10.1 innings against the Orioles and Brewers. This feels like quite the mismatch on the mound tonight, which has me on the Braves first five run line.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Ketel Marte over 1.5 bases -120
Great spot for Marte tonight against a lefty who throws a lot of fastballs. Kyle Harrison is set to take the mound for the Giants, throwing his fastball 63% of the time. He mixes in a slurve and a changeup to round out his three pitch arsenal. Dating back to last season, Marte has an absurd .408 wOBA against fastballs from lefties with a .253 ISO and only a 12% K%. Harrison has been getting knocked around lately, allowing at least three earned runs in four straight starts. He hasn’t been going deep into games either, exiting all of those after five innings. Marte has been great at going over 1.5 bases, doing so in 26 of the 59 games that he’s played. Hitting atop the Diamondbacks lineup, I think he’s in a great spot to make it 27 against Harrison and the Giants.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Luis Gil over 17.5 outs recorded +100
We’re looking to get 6.0 innings out of Gil tonight against the Twins. I was a bit surprised to see this at even money, see as Gil has thrown at least six innings in six straight starts. The competition in those starts, to be fair, has been a bit lackluster. He faced the Angels, Mariners, White Sox, Rays, Astros and Orioles over that span. Not all of those teams are bad but the Twins aren’t exactly a barnburner of an offense either. One of Gil’s issues has been his command, walking over four batters per nine innings. However, the Twins haven’t been a patient team, logging just over an 8% BB%, which ranks them around league average. If he can reel in his command a bit tonight, I think he has enough to go at least six innings once again.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
