Every offseason, the NBA’s 30 general managers participate in a survey asking them to detail predictions for the upcoming season and takes on players. One prominent question asks GM’s to consider which player they would choose if they could restart their franchise by drafting any player in the league.
The fraternity of players who have garnered consideration in that category is small, but the Dallas Mavericks’ Cooper Flagg and the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards are among that crew, with Edwards receiving votes in 2023/24 and Flagg receiving one vote in 2026/27.
Edwards won’t be available tonight when the Timberwolves host the Mavericks at 8 p.m. ET, but it’ll be another opportunity for Flagg to cement his status as one of the future faces of the NBA.
Tarik Biberović (heel), Sergio de Larrea (knee), and Dereck Lively II (foot) won’t be active tonight for Dallas, but none has played significant minutes anyway. Backup center Morez Johnson Jr. (shin) is probable. Only Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) are on Minnesota’s injury list, with Edwards set to miss at least another month and DiVincenzo hoping to return late in the 2026/27 season.
Even without their missing starters, the Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-223 Moneyline), with the point total set to 225.5. The Mavericks are +185 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this possible playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction
To be fair, Dallas has had a pretty easy schedule as of late, but it has won each of its last three games and currently sits in a Play-In Tournament position at 7-4. Flagg has taken a second-season leap and looks like a surefire All-Star, averaging 25.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 2.2 steals per game, and Kyrie Irving has shot the ball pretty well as a second option after missing all of last season due to a torn ACL. Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Walter Clayton Jr. are intriguing young bench pieces. So far, the Mavericks rank 12th in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating, and first-season head coach Dusty May seems to be having no issues adjusting to the professional game.
Minnesota went 3-1 with Edwards in the lineup, with the 2020 first overall pick off to a stellar start, but it has hardly missed a beat since losing him, as it has won each of its last four games. LaMelo Ball has proven a sage acquisition, as the Timberwolves have been 15.1 points per 100 possessions with him better on the floor than off, and Jonathan Kuminga has provided effort on defense while hitting his shots. For the season, Minnesota ranks eighth in offensive rating and first in defensive rating, and it’s still had a respectable plus-7.7 net rating since Edwards went down (roughly the performance of a standard 55-win team).
Mavericks at Timberwolves pick, best bet
Offensively, both of these teams have been pretty good at getting to the rack, with the Timberwolves averaging the fourth-most restricted-area attempts per game and Dallas the 14th-most across the last seven games. The Mavericks have been the better finishing team so far, although I’d expect both Rudy Gobert’s and Kuminga’s rim accuracy to tick up at some point. Minnesota has given some of that back up on the other end, allowing the fifth-most restricted-area tries per game so far, but both teams have done a good job preventing makes. I expect that stinginess to be sustainable, given that Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year and Flagg ranked in the 91st percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions last season.
Both of these teams have been strong on the glass, as the Timberwolves rank fourth in rebounding percentage and Dallas ninth, and in the long term, I’d bank on Minnesota to maintain that edge, given Joan Beringer’s newfound role in the rotation and Ball’s size. Each team is similarly strong in transition, although the Mavericks have several players who run the floor well, especially Flagg, Irving, and Risacher, and they’ve had a slight edge defensively so far. Neither team has been particularly well-disciplined, but Dallas has done a slightly better job getting to the charity stripe since Edwards’ injury.
Even without Edwards, the Timberwolves clearly have superior shooting. They’ve consistently been among the most aggressive and most accurate three-point shooting teams in the league throughout the last few seasons, while the Mavericks lost their three-point shooting identity after trading Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers. Indeed, in the last seven games, Minnesota has produced the fifth-most wide-open threes per game, generating 4.3 more per game than Dallas has, and Flagg’s jumper remains an open question. Both teams have allowed the same number of uncontested looks this season and have gotten similarly lucky.
Ultimately, these teams are pretty evenly-matched in almost all facets of the game, but the Timberwolves’ better shooting should put them over the top in the end. Given the Mavericks’ high volume of midrange jumpers, Minnesota has a more efficient baseline shot profile, and while the Timberwolves’ stingy 27.4% defensive figure on such shots is largely luck-based, they did hold opponents to the ninth-lowest percentage on such looks in 2025/26. Home-court advantage should edge Minnesota over the spread.
