The Winnipeg Jets visit the Dallas Stars on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 8:00 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is a -175 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Stars vs. Jets prediction and best bet.
Stars vs. Jets Odds
| Market | Winnipeg Jets | Dallas Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Stars vs. Jets Betting Preview
Dallas Stars Outlook
Dallas has won games this season simply by suffocating its opponents rather than outscoring them. The Stars allow just 2.70 xGoals against per 60 (T-3rd) and have given up the fewest high-danger shots in the NHL (34), and their 2.24 goals against per 60 rank second. The trade-off here is an even-strength attack that ranks T-27th in 5v5 xGoals per 60 (2.22), so Dallas leans heavily on a power play that ranks seventh (27.5%) and a penalty kill that leads the NHL (89.7%).
Mikko Rantanen (9G, 12A) and Jason Robertson (9G, 10A) share the team lead in goals, and Wyatt Johnston (3G, 13A) leads the club in assists. Miro Heiskanen (upper body) has been ruled out for a third straight game, though Dallas went 1-0-1 in the first two without him, and the Stars haven’t played since Saturday, which was a 4-3 win over San Jose. Jake Oettinger will start in net, and he’s 9-3-1 with a .906 SV%, 1.99 GAA and three shutouts. His +7.6 GSAx and +1.19% SV% above expected rank seventh and 11th, respectively, among 75 goaltenders.
Winnipeg Jets Outlook
Winnipeg enters riding a four-game winning streak, but its underlying numbers haven’t moved too much. The Jets rank 21st in xGoals share (48.9%) and 22nd in 5v5 Corsi% (48.3%), and their 2.18 5v5 goals per 60 rank 21st, so the offense still runs through a handful of players.
Kyle Connor (15G, 6A) leads the team in goals and has done the heavy lifting on the man advantage with seven power-play goals, while Mark Scheifele (4G, 15A) leads the club in assists. Stuart Skinner will start in net, and advanced metrics have him right around the middle of the pack, sitting 38th in GSAx (-0.3) and 36th in SV% above expected (-0.04%). His 6-4-3 record comes with an .883 SV%, though, so he starts to look more below-average than average when it comes to actual numbers.
Stars vs. Jets Prediction and Best Bet
Dallas has won each of the past five meetings, including a 3-2 overtime win on Oct. 22, and it’s worth noting that neither team scored in the first period that night. The public is all over the over, with 89% of the bets and 100% of the handle on Over 5.5, but I tend to shy away from totals not set at O/U 6.5. Ten of Winnipeg’s 19 games have featured one goal or fewer in the first period. Still, with Oettinger in net and two of the league’s weaker 5v5 offenses by xGoals, a quiet first period is the bet I trust most in this one scenario.
Best Bet: 1st Period Under 1.5 Goals (-105)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
