Despite Shohei Ohtani’s best efforts, the Los Angeles Angels’ skid continued on Friday night, as the Arizona Diamondbacks sent L.A. to their third straight loss and their seventh in the last 10. The Halos will look to get back on track in game two on Saturday night, with first pitch from Angel Stadium set for 9:38 p.m. ET. Ryne Nelson (4-4, 4.97 ERA) will go for Arizona, while the Angels give the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (4-2, 5.54).
This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Angels at -115 and the Diamondbacks at -105. The run total is set at 10.
Diamondbacks-Angels picks: Saturday, July 1st
Injury report
Diamondbacks
Day to day: OF Corbin Carroll (shoulder)
Out: SP Merrill Kelly (leg), RP Cole Sulser (shoulder), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder), RP Corbin Martin (shoulder)
Angels
Out: RP Ben Joyce (elbow), RP Matt Moore (oblique), SS Zach Neto (oblique), C Logan O’Hoppe (shoulder), C Max Stassi (hip), SP/RP Jose Suarez (shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Ryne Nelson vs. Tyler Anderson
It’s been an up-and-down 2023 for Nelson so far, but he’s coming off arguably his best start of the year, firing seven innings of one-run ball against the San Francisco Giants. The righty is heavily reliant on his four-seam fastball, throwing it over half the time, but opponents have teed off on it to the tune of a .309 batting average and .500 slugging percentage. He needs to develop some sort of secondary offering to get batters off his heater; his changeup has made strides in recent starts, but it remains pretty unproven. Nelson generally goes at least five innings or so, but he’s allowing 10 hits per nine innings and has given up four or more runs six times this year.
Anderson hasn’t been much better, allowing at least three runs in 10 of his 16 starts this season. The lefty was an All-Star last year, largely on the back of his changeup, but he hasn’t been able to replicate that success in 2023, as batters are hitting .312 off the slow ball this year. When he’s got the feel for the change, he can still be very effective, but if he doesn’t, his lack of plus velocity leaves him very vulnerable.
Over/Under pick
Yesterday saw eight total runs between these two teams, and I’m backing the under with an aggressive total tonight. Nelson and Anderson have given up their fair share of runs, but they’re both coming off of solid outings, and this is just a very high number for two offenses that have blown hot and cold of late — especially with Corbin Carroll likely out again for Arizona. The D-backs have fallen short of this number in seven of their last nine, and Ohtani and Mike Trout simply don’t have enough help in this L.A. lineup.
Pick: Under 10
Moneyline pick
Anderson had the changeup working last time out, and I trust that a bit more than what Nelson is offering this year. The Angels are in desperate need of a win, and in a pick ‘em situation, I’ll ride with the team with Ohtani and Trout — and against the team that’s missing its best player.
Pick: Angels
