This is one of those pitching slates that I wish I could show the March version of myself. Jordan Montgomery ($11,000), Lucas Giolito ($10,700) and Jack Flaherty ($8,400) are where? Yusei Kikuchi ($9,000) is deserving of being $9K? Who the heck is Bryce Elder ($8,700) and why is he so expensive?
Fortunately, the August version of myself understands this madness. At least a little, anyway. Allow me to break it all down.
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PITCHER
Stud
Jordan Montgomery, Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels, $11,000 – Let me be clear about something right off the top: You don’t need to pay up at pitcher on this slate. While Montgomery’s incredible matchup makes him viable, his $11K price tag is difficult to digest. You might be better served with a pair of values at the top of your lineup this evening. That said, the Angels have been woeful so far in August, possessing a 55 wRC+ and a 28.3% strikeout rate that is the highest mark among AL teams. To his own credit, Montgomery has also been quite solid lately, posting a 2.63 ERA across his past nine appearances.
Value
Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants, $6,800 – There’s nothing particularly special about Littell, but the 27-year-old appears to be fully built-up, as he’s now pitched six innings in each of his last two starts. The RHP has also been pretty decent since the All-Star break, registering a 2.42 ERA with an insane 17.00 K/BB ratio within that 22.1 inning sample. Basically, Littell doesn’t beat himself. That’s valuable in a matchup with the Giants, because it doesn’t seem like their bats can do much unassisted at this point. San Francisco has managed just a 65 wRC+ since August 1. Yuck.
INFIELD
Stud
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees, $6,100 – All I do now is write up Olson. But, you know, with good reason. Olson has started August on absolute fire. With seven home runs in his 50 plate appearances in the month, the first baseman is currently the MLB leader in long balls (43). Heck, since the All-Star break, Olson is rocking a .447 ISO and a 222 wRC+. He’s simply operating on another plane of existence at the moment. That’s more bad news for Luis Severino ($5,900), who owns an 8.06 ERA and is giving up a .701 slugging percentage to opposing LHBs in 2023.
Stud
Jeimer Candelario, Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox, $4,500 – The Cubs are one of a handful of teams with an implied total of over five runs on Tuesday night. That makes sense. Not only has Chicago been scoring runs in bunches as of late, but it’ll get the opportunity to face Touki Toussaint ($6,900) this evening, who has surrendered a combined eight earned runs with nine walks in his last two outings. Any Cubs’ asset in the lineup is viable on this slate, but pay close attention to Candelario. All the veteran has done since being acquired at the trade deadline is hit, posting a 205 wRC+ in his last 45 plate appearances.
Value
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Oakland Athletics, $2,900 – It seems like Spenser Watkins ($4,000) will be making the start tonight for Oakland. If you need to know how desperate that makes the A’s appear, consider that Watkins was claimed off waivers by Oakland last Tuesday and that the RHP has pitched to an 8.35 ERA in Triple-A in 2023. I expect that the Cardinals will have no issue putting up some crooked numbers this evening, so you might as well add the cost-effective Burleson to your St. Louis stack. Burleson has a .214 ISO and a 127 wRC+ when hitting at Busch Stadium this season.
Value
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, $2,500 – It’s been a somewhat quiet rookie campaign for Moreno, yet the backstop has thrived when getting the opportunity to face a left-handed opponent. To wit, in 76 plate appearances within the split, Moreno is slashing .371/.395/.557 with a 153 wRC+. The lefty tonight is Ty Blach ($5,300) and the game is taking place at Coors Field. Need I say more?
OUTFIELD
Stud
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, $5,600 – It hasn’t always been pretty in 2023 for Julio, but the former top prospect has been coming on strong since the beginning of July. In his last 173 plate appearances, Rodriguez is slashing .296/.353/.491 with a 135 wRC+ and 10 stolen bases. More recently, the All-Star has six multi-hit performances in his past nine games. With Jordan Lyles ($6,500) and his ugly 6.13 ERA on the mound for the Royals this evening, I’d anticipate Rodriguez staying hot.
Stud
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees, $4,100 – Harris’ price point has not wavered from the low $4K range all season long and I simply do not understand why. While the reigning NL Rookie of the Year got off to a terribly slow start in 2023, Harris is slashing .344/.380/.548 with a 147 wRC+ going back to June 1. If that isn’t a $5K asset, I don’t know what is. For the purposes of tonight, Harris is obviously a great option as another left-handed bat to throw at the floundering Severino.
Value
Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Oakland Athletics, $3,800 – Injuries have once again derailed O’Neill’s season, but in a matchup with the aforementioned Watkins, I’d suggest paying some attention to the outfielder. O’Neill has four home runs in just 34 at-bats in August. He’s also hitting only .176 in the month, yet the power upside is clearly there.
Value
Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, $2,500 – There’s some stuff to like about Canzone. The rookie’s 11.1% barrel rate is intriguing, and it seems like the Mariners are content to have the 25-year-old bat in the middle of their lineup against RHPs. Still, this is way more about Canzone’s dirt cheap price tag and the presence of Lyles, who has surrendered 1.97 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs in 2023. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City owns an AL-worst 6.08 bullpen ERA since the All-Star break. Seattle is going to score some runs.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
