NFL RB Touch Projections — Week 9 TNF: Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

In fantasy football, running back is arguably the most important position on the field. At the very least, good RBs are the hardest commodity to come by in most formats, and finding ones with any value in DFS is a chore.

With all that in mind, I’m here help.

Let’s break down some touch and target projections for each backfield in tonight’s Thursday Night Football tilt between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Baltimore Ravens.

RB Touch Projections for Jaguars vs. Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars

Generated November 05, 2026 at 09:31 AM ET

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (15% 2025 / 85% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).

Let’s just start with the elephant in the room. Bhayshul Tuten is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest with ankle and foot injuries. He did not practice on Monday or on Tuesday, and Liam Coen referred to his lead back as a true game-time decision.

So here’s what we’ll do. First, let’s operate in the world where Tuten is active and he isn’t incredibly limited by his myriad of injuries. The former fourth-round pick has seen at least 15 carries in five of the Jaguars’ seven games this season, and despite not being overly involved in the passing attack and Jacksonville already having had its bye, Tuten’s 125 touches place him just outside the top 15 in the NFL entering Week 9. In a vacuum, you’re looking at 15-20 touches and a snap share over 50%. Tuten is about as sturdy an RB2 as we currently have in fantasy football.

However, I think it’s a little optimistic to assume Tuten will be his usual self even if he does play this evening. Ironically, it’s also likely that a potential positive script actually works against the sophomore. The Jaguars are a massive 10-point favorite on Thursday. In theory, that should be a boost to a running back, as a big lead usually equates to bleeding the clock with rushing attempts. Yet, if Jacksonville is in complete control early on, it may choose to ease the burden on its banged-up RB.

Finally, if Tuten simply ends up inactive, things get a lot more straightforward. Chris Rodriguez Jr. would step into Tuten’s normal workload in what should be a run-centric script, while Ameer Abdullah would see action as a complimentary back.

Baltimore Ravens

Generated November 05, 2026 at 09:31 AM ET

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (15% 2025 / 85% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).

With an undrafted rookie QB making his first-career start for the Ravens — on a short week and with an ankle injury limiting him in practice — you would assume that Derrick Henry won’t be short on opportunity in Week 9. I mean, Henry already leads the league in carries (158), so it’s not like the Ravens are opposed to featuring their future Hall of Fame running back.

The worry is simply about Baltimore’s ability as a whole to sustain offense. Even if Henry gets the ball on every first and second down in the first-half, it doesn’t matter much if the Ravens aren’t consistently moving the chains and staying on the field. A negative script in the second-half would also play much more into the skill-set of Justice Hill as an asset in the passing attack.

This is probably the most clear way to frame the dilemma of Henry on Thursday Night Football. In Baltimore’s four wins this season, the veteran is averaging 24.3 carries per game. In its four losses? Henry’s workload falls to just 15.3 carries per contest. That’s a massive disparity, and this projection is far more in line with the latter scenario.