Zay Flowers Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice for Week 9

The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback situation took a turn for the worse last week when Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley were both knocked out of the game due to injuries. With a third-string rookie under center, Zay Flowers – one of the best WRs in fantasy football this season – blanked in what should’ve been a very positive matchup. Now, the team is at home against an elite Jacksonville Jaguars squad on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, but nobody’s coming to save them at the sport’s most important position just yet.

There’s uncertainty under center for at least one more game. Here are the details on whether you should start or sit Zay Flowers in Week 9 fantasy.

Zay Flowers Start or Sit Advice for Week 9

For most of this fantasy football season, Zay Flowers has been absolutely incredible. The Ravens’ star wideout secured a lucrative contract extension over the offseason, and thus far, has proven to be worth every single dollar. He’s currently averaging 17.5 FPPG in PPR formats across his seven games and is the overall WR10 despite missing a game with injury and seeing a reduced snap share when he returned. He’s racked up 608 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 58 targets, averaging a career-best 15.2 YDS/REC and pacing to shatter his previous high marks in all of the major categories.

Despite his small stature at 5-foot-9, Flowers is a big-time talent. On a per-route basis, he’s truly elite – his 3.25 YPRR sits third among 115 qualifying wide receivers, while his 0.29 TPRR ranks seventh. He sits third in separation score, also excelling after the catch with 8.30 YAC/REC, fourth best among the same sample at the position. With his skills, he’s averaging 86.9 receiving yards per game, even despite a somewhat limited snap share of 67.1%. It should be noted that he holds an 80.6% route share, though that’s translated to an average of only 26.7 routes run per game.

Beyond his excellent efficiency, the driving force behind his success is an elite opportunity share. Flowers is seeing a 27.9% target share that grades out in the 95th percentile, also posting a 35.7% first-read share and a 32.6% air yards share. He’s the focal point of Baltimore’s passing attack regardless of who the quarterback is, which is why he’s been able to produce with both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley.

However, neither player is under center this week. Instead, rookie Joe Fagnano will start at quarterback for the Ravens after both players ahead of him on the depth chart were injured in Week 8. The UDFA played most of that game against the Bills – one of the NFL’s softest secondaries – and managed only 91 yards on 21 pass attempts with zero touchdowns and one interception. Flowers’ numbers suffered as he not only finished below double-digit PPR points for the first time this season, but was blanked outright without a catch on his five targets.

There’s concern about whether the blossoming star belongs in fantasy lineups in Week 9’s edition of Thursday Night Football against the Jaguars. This matchup could go either way, frankly. Jacksonville excels against the run and could be able to limit Derrick Henry, forcing Fagnano to air the ball out. They could also largely dominate control of the football given Baltimore’s quarterback problem and the reality that the offense may have some serious pains. However, it should be noted that the Jags allow the sixth-most FPPG to WRs, even despite being one of the best defenses in the NFL as a whole and ranking sixth in EPA/dropback allowed.

The outlook for Flowers is quite murky. Does he deserve to start in fantasy lineups this week?

The Bottom Line

The Ravens will most likely lose this game. Fagnano will probably struggle against an elite defense and a pass rush that ranks sixth in pressure rate and second in time to pressure. Even still, that’s not enough to remove Flowers from the fantasy radar entirely.

The reality of the situation is that while the quarterback play may be ugly, getting the ball to Flowers remains the central focus of this Baltimore passing attack under coordinator Declan Doyle. The floor is likely lower for the wideout given the unreliable arm who’ll throw his way, but his volume probably won’t see a significant downtick – instead, the quality of his targets will decrease. That is a negative factor, but with his ability to create plays after the catch, there’s still hope that even a simplified attack that prioritizes short passes to insulate the quarterback could allow Flowers to produce 10+ fantasy points, especially in PPR formats.

Managers in 10-team leagues can consider leaving him on the bench, but he is a burgeoning superstar. Despite the bad Week 8, Flowers should be started in all leagues of 12 teams or more with expectations of low-end WR2 value on the week. Temper your hopes of a huge game in Week 9, but once Jacoby Brissett – whom the Ravens are finalizing a trade for – gets under center in Week 10 as expected, the sky will be the limit again.