Bryce Young just threw three touchdowns against Denver. Now he gets a New Orleans secondary that has been torched from single-high coverage more often than any in the league (11 passing touchdowns allowed). Young has thrown 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions against those looks himself. I’d let Tetairoa McMillan and Darren Waller test the Saints downfield, especially after Young completed 28 of 39 passes for 276 yards against a Denver rush that made him work for them. Carolina has lost three straight, but its passing game can win this matchup. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Saints vs. Panthers prediction, preview
Dave Canales has been dressing up the running game with three tight ends, then asking defenses to account for those same players when Young throws. The Panthers have used 13 personnel on 60 snaps, averaging 5.1 yards per play from the grouping, eighth in the league. Chuba Hubbard has churned out 619 yards on 134 carries; Waller, Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans can clear space for him, then release into routes. Denver saw Waller cross deep to open the second half. New Orleans has to sort through those possibilities before it can come after Young.
And the Saints can certainly come after him. Edge rushers Chase Young and Carl Granderson have combined for 15.5 sacks, while Bryce has taken 26. Carolina gets starting left guard Damien Lewis back without a game designation, and Hubbard can help by turning first-down carries into manageable throws. The Saints have allowed opponents to convert 47.2% of third downs and succeed on 46.7% of plays. If Carolina gets past the rush, Young should have chances to extend drives.
New Orleans faces an even uglier protection problem. Center Erik McCoy and right tackle Taliese Fuaga are out. Cesar Ruiz shifts inside, rookie Jeremiah Wright steps into right guard, and Asim Richards is expected at right tackle. That’s three positions to sort out against a Carolina front that could regain Jaelan Phillips, questionable with a hamstring injury. The Panthers have only 11 sacks, so the reshuffle alone hardly guarantees a miserable afternoon for Tyler Shough. Cleveland did sack him five times before these latest changes, though, and Carolina has reason to test the new combination.
Panthers vs. Saints pick, best bet
Shough loves an out-breaking route, throwing a league-high 38.3% of his passes in that direction. Carolina has held opponents to 62.7% completions on those throws, third-lowest. Chris Olave can still attack elsewhere, and Bobby Okereke’s absence leaves Carolina thinner underneath. Once the Saints get inside the 20, watch out: the Panthers have allowed touchdowns on 80.6% of red-zone trips. I expect Shough to finish some drives. Young can move Carolina more often against a defense struggling to get off the field, and the Saints’ patched line may cost them a possession at precisely the wrong time.
Best bet: Panthers +1.5 (-115)
Projected score: Panthers 27, Saints 24.
